Guerreros vs Real Refineros: prediction and stats
Liga Premier Serie AApertura - 24Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 10:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Héroe de Nacozari
The Footlab AI model makes Guerreros the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Real Refineros. The most likely score is 1-1. If Guerreros wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,495 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guerreros vs Real Refineros?
On Elo ratings, Guerreros has 1,807 points and Real Refineros 1,802.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Guerreros vs Real Refineros
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Guerreros
Not enough data to predict the Guerreros lineup.
Real Refineros
Not enough data to predict the Real Refineros lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 11:05 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guerreros have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Real Refineros have 1, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | FC Santiago(away) | 2-2 | Liga Premier Serie A |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Correcaminos UAT II(home) | 3-0 | Liga Premier Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Real Apodaca(away) | 0-2 | Liga Premier Serie A |
| Sep 13, 2026 | La Tribu de Cd. Juarez(home) | 2-1 | Liga Premier Serie A |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Vaqueros Reynosa(home) | 3-4 | Liga Premier Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Halcones Negros(home) | 2-3 | Liga Premier Serie A |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Dragones de Oaxaca(away) | 2-3 | Liga Premier Serie A |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Ciervos(home) | 3-3 | Liga Premier Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Delfines Coatzacoalcos(away) | 2-2 | Liga Premier Serie A |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Calor de San Pedro(home) | 0-0 | Liga Premier Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Guerreros score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Real Refineros score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guerreros | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Real Refineros | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2 | 4/7 | 4/7 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guerreros sit 7th in Liga Premier Serie A (8 points from 6 matches) and Real Refineros sit 8th (7 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Guerreros | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 8 |
| 8 | Real Refineros | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 13 | 7 |
A question about Guerreros vs Real Refineros?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guerreros vs Real Refineros?
- The Footlab AI model makes Guerreros the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Real Refineros.
- Where and when is Guerreros vs Real Refineros played?
- Guerreros vs Real Refineros is played on March 14, 2027 at 10:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Héroe de Nacozari, in the Liga Premier Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 13, 2027FC SantiagovsCiervos
- Mar 13, 2027Héroes de ZacivsGuerreros del Pacifico
- Mar 13, 2027AcatlanvsCañoneros Marina
- Mar 13, 2027Correcaminos UAT IIvsCalor de San Pedro
- Mar 13, 2027Mineros de FresnillovsDragones de Oaxaca
- Mar 13, 2027Atlético SaltillovsArtesanos Metepec
- Mar 14, 2027Vaqueros ReynosavsAcambaro
- Mar 14, 2027Real ApodacavsHalcones Negros