Guimaraes B vs Pacos Ferreira: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Campo Gémeos Castro, Guimarães
The Footlab model makes Guimaraes B the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 21% for Pacos Ferreira. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guimaraes B vs Pacos Ferreira?
Guimaraes B starts as the favourite with a 137-point Elo edge (1,947 vs 1,811).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guimaraes B have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Pacos Ferreira have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Fafe(away) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Leça(home) | 2-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Paredes(away) | 1-3 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Chaves(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Amarante(home) | 1-3 | Liga 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Varzim(home) | 1-4 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Paredes(home) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | AD Marco 09(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | AVS(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Guimaraes B win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Pacos Ferreira win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2019 | Pacos Ferreira 4-1 Guimaraes B | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 28, 2018 | Guimaraes B 0-1 Pacos Ferreira | Segunda Liga |
Last archived meeting: Pacos Ferreira vs Guimaraes B on Mar 2, 2019
How many goals should we expect?
Guimaraes B score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Pacos Ferreira score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes B | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Pacos Ferreira | 0.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guimaraes B sit 5th in Liga 3 (4 points from 3 matches) and Pacos Ferreira sit 10th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Guimaraes B | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 10 | Pacos Ferreira | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guimaraes B vs Pacos Ferreira?
- The Footlab model makes Guimaraes B the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 21% for Pacos Ferreira.
- Where and when is Guimaraes B vs Pacos Ferreira played?
- Guimaraes B vs Pacos Ferreira is played on October 11, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Gémeos Castro, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.