SC Covilha vs Oliveirense: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal José Santos Pinto, Covilhã
The Footlab model makes SC Covilha the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Oliveirense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win SC Covilha vs Oliveirense?
A very open match: only 1 Elo points separate SC Covilha (1,809) and Oliveirense (1,809).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, SC Covilha have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Oliveirense have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Atlético CP(home) | 0-3 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(away) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | União Santarém(home) | 2-0 | Liga 3 |
| May 1, 2026 | Amora(home) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Caldas(away) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(home) | 3-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | União Santarém(away) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Louletano(home) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| May 17, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 1-5 | Segunda Liga |
| May 9, 2026 | Feirense(away) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 SC Covilha win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Oliveirense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2023 | SC Covilha 2-1 Oliveirense | Segunda Liga |
| Dec 30, 2022 | Oliveirense 2-0 SC Covilha | Segunda Liga |
| Mar 16, 2021 | SC Covilha 1-0 Oliveirense | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 25, 2020 | Oliveirense 1-2 SC Covilha | Segunda Liga |
| Feb 3, 2020 | SC Covilha 1-0 Oliveirense | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 17, 2019 | Oliveirense 0-2 SC Covilha | Segunda Liga |
Last archived meeting: SC Covilha vs Oliveirense on May 6, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
SC Covilha score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Oliveirense score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Covilha | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Oliveirense | 0.9 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
SC Covilha sit 6th in Liga 3 (4 points from 3 matches) and Oliveirense sit 3rd (5 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Oliveirense | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| 6 | SC Covilha | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for SC Covilha vs Oliveirense?
- The Footlab model makes SC Covilha the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Oliveirense.
- Where and when is SC Covilha vs Oliveirense played?
- SC Covilha vs Oliveirense is played on October 11, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal José Santos Pinto, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.