União Santarém vs Lusitano Évora 1911: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Campo Chã das Padeiras, Santarém
The Footlab model makes Lusitano Évora 1911 the favourite at 36%, against 32% for a draw and 31% for União Santarém. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win União Santarém vs Lusitano Évora 1911?
A very open match: only 83 Elo points separate União Santarém (1,853) and Lusitano Évora 1911 (1,936).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, União Santarém have 1 wins, 6 draws and 8 defeats; Lusitano Évora 1911 have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | CF Os Belenenses(away) | 0-5 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Oliveirense(home) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | SC Covilha(away) | 0-2 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Academica(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Varzim(home) | 2-2 | Liga 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Mafra(home) | 2-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Caldas(away) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Atlético CP(home) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Benfica B(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 União Santarém win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Lusitano Évora 1911 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | Lusitano Évora 1911 1-0 União Santarém | Liga 3 |
| Aug 9, 2025 | União Santarém 1-0 Lusitano Évora 1911 | Liga 3 |
Last archived meeting: Lusitano Évora 1911 vs União Santarém on Nov 9, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
União Santarém score 0.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Lusitano Évora 1911 score 0.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 33% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| União Santarém | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Lusitano Évora 1911 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
União Santarém sit 10th in Liga 3 (1 points from 3 matches) and Lusitano Évora 1911 sit 4th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | União Santarém | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for União Santarém vs Lusitano Évora 1911?
- The Footlab model makes Lusitano Évora 1911 the favourite at 36%, against 32% for a draw and 31% for União Santarém.
- Where and when is União Santarém vs Lusitano Évora 1911 played?
- União Santarém vs Lusitano Évora 1911 is played on October 11, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Chã das Padeiras, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 33% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.