Leça vs AD Marco 09: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Leça Futebol Clube, Leça da Palmeira
The Footlab model makes Leça the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for AD Marco 09. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leça vs AD Marco 09?
A very open match: only 74 Elo points separate Leça (1,959) and AD Marco 09 (1,886).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leça have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; AD Marco 09 have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Paredes(away) | 2-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Guimaraes B(away) | 0-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | São João Ver(home) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vianense(home) | 2-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Varzim(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Pacos Ferreira(home) | 2-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cinfães(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | União de Leiria(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Leça win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 AD Marco 09 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2025 | AD Marco 09 3-2 Leça | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Leça 1-0 AD Marco 09 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| Feb 9, 2025 | AD Marco 09 0-1 Leça | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Leça 0-0 AD Marco 09 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 8, 2024 | Leça 2-2 AD Marco 09 | Taça de Portugal |
How many goals should we expect?
Leça score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; AD Marco 09 score 0.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leça | 1.6 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| AD Marco 09 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leça sit 6th in Liga 3 (4 points from 3 matches) and AD Marco 09 sit 7th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Leça | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 7 | AD Marco 09 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leça vs AD Marco 09?
- The Footlab model makes Leça the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for AD Marco 09.
- Where and when is Leça vs AD Marco 09 played?
- Leça vs AD Marco 09 is played on October 11, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Leça Futebol Clube, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.