Guinea vs Kenya: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 2Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade Félix Houphouët-Boigny, Abidjan
The Footlab model makes Guinea the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Kenya. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guinea vs Kenya?
A very open match: only 18 Elo points separate Guinea (1,548) and Kenya (1,530).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guinea have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Kenya have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 2026 | Northern Ireland(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Benin(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Togo(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Niger(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Liberia(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Lesotho(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Lesotho(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Grenada(away) | 3-0 | FIFA Series |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Estonia(home) | 1-1 | FIFA Series |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Senegal(away) | 0-8 | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Guinea score 1.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Kenya score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guinea | 1.1 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Kenya | 1.4 | 1.3 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guinea sit 3rd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (9 points from 6 matches) and Kenya sit 3rd (6 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Guinea | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Kenya | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guinea vs Kenya?
- The Footlab model makes Guinea the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Kenya.
- Where and when is Guinea vs Kenya played?
- Guinea vs Kenya is played on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Félix Houphouët-Boigny, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.