Eritrea vs Kenya: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 5Kick-off on March 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Cicero Stadium, Asmara
The Footlab AI model makes Eritrea the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Kenya. The most likely score is 1-1. If Eritrea wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Eritrea vs Kenya?
A very open match: only 77 Elo points separate Eritrea (1,442) and Kenya (1,519).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Eritrea vs Kenya
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Eritrea
5-4-1- 10A. Sulieman
- 20N. Girmai Netabay
- 9T. Tekie
- 7F. Gerezgiher
- AA. Okray
- 14Namrud Embaye
- 16Hennos Asmelash
- 25V. Fors
- 4J. Ali
- YY. Solomon
- KK. Solomun
Kenya
4-2-3-1- 15R. Ogam
- 8Duke Ooga Abuya
- 19J. Ochieng
- 12C. Erambo
- 17V. Harper
- 10T. Ouma
- 20M. Okwaro
- 4M. Kibwage
- 16R. Onyango
- 5F. Odhiambo
- 1S. Faruk
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Eritrea have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Kenya have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | South Africa(home) | 0-5 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Kenya(away) | 1-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Eswatini(away) | 2-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Eswatini(home) | 2-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| May 28, 2025 | Niger(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Rwanda(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Guinea(away) | 0-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Eritrea(home) | 1-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Lesotho(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Lesotho(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Eritrea win, 1 draw, 0 Kenya wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | Kenya 1-1 Eritrea | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Dec 17, 2019 | Kenya 1-4 Eritrea | CECAFA Senior Challenge Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Eritrea score 1.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Kenya score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eritrea | 1.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Kenya | 1.3 | 1.3 | 6 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Eritrea sit 3rd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (1 point from 2 matches) and Kenya sit 4th (1 point from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Eritrea | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| 4 | Kenya | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
A question about Eritrea vs Kenya?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Eritrea vs Kenya?
- The Footlab AI model makes Eritrea the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Kenya.
- Where and when is Eritrea vs Kenya played?
- Eritrea vs Kenya is played on March 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Cicero Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.