Hapoel Mahane Yehuda vs Hapoel Sderot: prediction and stats
Liga AlefSouth - 3Kick-off on September 18, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Moshava Training Field, Pétaḥ-Tiqva (Petach-Tikva)
The Footlab model makes Hapoel Sderot the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Hapoel Mahane Yehuda. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hapoel Mahane Yehuda vs Hapoel Sderot?
A very open match: only 91 Elo points separate Hapoel Mahane Yehuda (1,562) and Hapoel Sderot (1,653).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hapoel Mahane Yehuda have 7 wins, 0 draws and 8 defeats; Hapoel Sderot have 2, 0 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2025 | Hapoel Hod HaSharon(away) | 1-5 | State Cup |
| Nov 11, 2024 | Agudat Sport Ashdod(away) | 0-1 | State Cup |
| Oct 8, 2024 | Hapoel Kiryat Ono(away) | 2-1 | State Cup |
| Sep 24, 2024 | Maccabi Giv'at Shmuel(home) | 3-1 | State Cup |
| Sep 6, 2024 | Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla(away) | 4-2 | State Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | Hapoel Beer Sheva(away) | 1-2 | State Cup |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Hapoel Hadera(away) | 4-3 | State Cup |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Araba(home) | 2-1 | State Cup |
| Oct 2, 2018 | Maccabi Yavne(home) | 0-4 | State Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda score 1.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Hapoel Sderot score 1.8 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel Mahane Yehuda | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Hapoel Sderot | 1.8 | 2.5 | 0 | 3/4 | 4/4 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hapoel Mahane Yehuda vs Hapoel Sderot?
- The Footlab model makes Hapoel Sderot the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Hapoel Mahane Yehuda.
- Where and when is Hapoel Mahane Yehuda vs Hapoel Sderot played?
- Hapoel Mahane Yehuda vs Hapoel Sderot is played on September 18, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Moshava Training Field, in the Liga Alef.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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