Hapoel Migdal HaEmek vs Ironi Baka El Garbiya: prediction and stats
Liga AlefNorth - 8Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Municipal Stadium, Migdal HaEmek
The Footlab model makes Hapoel Migdal HaEmek the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Ironi Baka El Garbiya. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hapoel Migdal HaEmek vs Ironi Baka El Garbiya?
A very open match: only 9 Elo points separate Hapoel Migdal HaEmek (1,711) and Ironi Baka El Garbiya (1,702).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hapoel Migdal HaEmek have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Ironi Baka El Garbiya have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | Tzeirey Tamra(away) | 2-0 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 19, 2026 | Ironi Nesher(home) | 3-0 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Maccabi Ahi Nazareth(away) | 2-4 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm(home) | 3-1 | Liga Alef |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Maccabi Neve Sha'anan(away) | 0-0 | Liga Alef |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | Ironi Nesher(away) | 0-0 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Maccabi Ahi Nazareth(home) | 0-3 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm(away) | 0-1 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Maccabi Neve Sha'anan(home) | 4-1 | Liga Alef |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed(away) | 1-2 | Liga Alef |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Hapoel Migdal HaEmek win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Ironi Baka El Garbiya win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | Ironi Baka El Garbiya 2-1 Hapoel Migdal HaEmek | Liga Alef |
| Sep 5, 2025 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 0-0 Ironi Baka El Garbiya | Liga Alef |
| Jan 3, 2025 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 2-2 Ironi Baka El Garbiya | Liga Alef |
| Mar 15, 2024 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 0-2 Ironi Baka El Garbiya | Liga Alef |
| Dec 22, 2023 | Ironi Baka El Garbiya 0-0 Hapoel Migdal HaEmek | Liga Alef |
| Sep 1, 2023 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 1-3 Ironi Baka El Garbiya | State Cup |
Last archived meeting: Ironi Baka El Garbiya vs Hapoel Migdal HaEmek on Jan 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek score 1.8 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Ironi Baka El Garbiya score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel Migdal HaEmek | 1.8 | 1.0 | 7 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Ironi Baka El Garbiya | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek sit 8th in Liga Alef (31 points from 22 matches) and Ironi Baka El Garbiya sit 9th (31 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 29 | 23 | 31 |
| 9 | Ironi Baka El Garbiya | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 33 | 30 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hapoel Migdal HaEmek vs Ironi Baka El Garbiya?
- The Footlab model makes Hapoel Migdal HaEmek the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Ironi Baka El Garbiya.
- Where and when is Hapoel Migdal HaEmek vs Ironi Baka El Garbiya played?
- Hapoel Migdal HaEmek vs Ironi Baka El Garbiya is played on October 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Municipal Stadium, in the Liga Alef.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 24, 2026Beitar NahariyavsHapoel Beit Shean
- Oct 24, 2026Hapoel Ihud Bnei JattvsHapoel Bnei Musmus
- Oct 24, 2026Maccabi Nujeidat AhmedvsIroni Nesher
- Oct 24, 2026TiravsHapoel Tirat HaCarmel
- Oct 24, 2026Hapoel Ironi KarmielvsHapoel Nazareth Illit
- Oct 24, 2026Maccabi K. Ata BialikvsHapoel Umm al-Fahm
- Oct 24, 2026Tzeirei Umm al-FahmvsTzeirey Tamra
- Oct 24, 2026Hapoel Ironi ArrabavsMaccabi Neve Sha'anan