Hapoel Migdal HaEmek vs Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm: prediction and stats
Liga AlefNorth - 10Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Municipal Stadium, Migdal HaEmek
The Footlab model makes Hapoel Migdal HaEmek the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hapoel Migdal HaEmek vs Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Hapoel Migdal HaEmek (1,711) and Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm (1,657).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hapoel Migdal HaEmek have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | Tzeirey Tamra(away) | 2-0 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 19, 2026 | Ironi Nesher(home) | 3-0 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Maccabi Ahi Nazareth(away) | 2-4 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm(home) | 3-1 | Liga Alef |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Maccabi Neve Sha'anan(away) | 0-0 | Liga Alef |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | Maccabi Neve Sha'anan(home) | 1-2 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed(away) | 2-1 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Ironi Baka El Garbiya(home) | 1-0 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek(away) | 1-3 | Liga Alef |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Hapoel Ironi Arraba(home) | 3-0 | Liga Alef |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Hapoel Migdal HaEmek win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2026 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 3-1 Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | Liga Alef |
| Sep 26, 2025 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm 0-0 Hapoel Migdal HaEmek | Liga Alef |
| Jan 21, 2025 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 3-1 Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | Liga Alef |
| May 3, 2024 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 1-1 Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | Liga Alef |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm 2-2 Hapoel Migdal HaEmek | Liga Alef |
Last archived meeting: Hapoel Migdal HaEmek vs Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm on Feb 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek score 1.8 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel Migdal HaEmek | 1.8 | 1.0 | 7 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | 1.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek sit 8th in Liga Alef (31 points from 22 matches) and Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm sit 10th (30 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 29 | 23 | 31 |
| 10 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 29 | 25 | 30 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hapoel Migdal HaEmek vs Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm?
- The Footlab model makes Hapoel Migdal HaEmek the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm.
- Where and when is Hapoel Migdal HaEmek vs Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm played?
- Hapoel Migdal HaEmek vs Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm is played on November 7, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Municipal Stadium, in the Liga Alef.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 7, 2026Beitar NahariyavsTzeirey Tamra
- Nov 7, 2026Hapoel Bnei MusmusvsMaccabi Neve Sha'anan
- Nov 7, 2026Hapoel Ihud Bnei JattvsIroni Nesher
- Nov 7, 2026Maccabi Nujeidat AhmedvsHapoel Tirat HaCarmel
- Nov 7, 2026TiravsHapoel Nazareth Illit
- Nov 7, 2026Hapoel Ironi KarmielvsIroni Baka El Garbiya
- Nov 7, 2026Maccabi K. Ata BialikvsHapoel Beit Shean
- Nov 7, 2026Hapoel Ironi ArrabavsHapoel Umm al-Fahm