Hapoel Sderot vs Maccabi Ashdod: prediction and stats
Liga AlefSouth - 15Kick-off on December 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Hapoel Sderot the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Maccabi Ashdod. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hapoel Sderot vs Maccabi Ashdod?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Hapoel Sderot (1,653) and Maccabi Ashdod (1,670).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 4 matches in all competitions, Hapoel Sderot have 2 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats; Maccabi Ashdod have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | Hapoel Beer Sheva(away) | 1-2 | State Cup |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Hapoel Hadera(away) | 4-3 | State Cup |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Araba(home) | 2-1 | State Cup |
| Oct 2, 2018 | Maccabi Yavne(home) | 0-4 | State Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | Hapoel Marmorek(away) | 1-1 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 13, 2026 | FC Jerusalem(away) | 3-3 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Tzeirey Tira(home) | 0-3 | Liga Alef |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Hapoel Ramat HaSharon(away) | 3-2 | Liga Alef |
| Jan 23, 2026 | Kfar Saba 1928(home) | 1-1 | Liga Alef |
How many goals should we expect?
Hapoel Sderot score 1.8 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 4; Maccabi Ashdod score 2.0 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel Sderot | 1.8 | 2.5 | 0 | 3/4 | 4/4 |
| Maccabi Ashdod | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 4 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Maccabi Ashdod | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 37 | 35 | 28 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hapoel Sderot vs Maccabi Ashdod?
- The Footlab model makes Hapoel Sderot the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Maccabi Ashdod.
- Where and when is Hapoel Sderot vs Maccabi Ashdod played?
- Hapoel Sderot vs Maccabi Ashdod is played on December 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Liga Alef.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 18, 2026Hapoel AzorvsKfar Saba 1928
- Dec 18, 2026Hapoel Mahane YehudavsNordia Jerusalem
- Dec 18, 2026Maccabi Kiryat MalachivsMaccabi Yavne
- Dec 19, 2026DimonavsShimshon Tel Aviv
- Dec 19, 2026Hapoel HerzliyavsHapoel Marmorek
- Dec 19, 2026Beitar YavnevsHapoel Hadera
- Dec 19, 2026Tzeirey TiravsHapoel Ramat HaSharon
- Dec 19, 2026FC JerusalemvsHolon Yermiyahu