Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Hapoel Migdal HaEmek: prediction and stats
Liga AlefNorth - 15Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)HaShalom Stadium, Umm al-Fahm
The Footlab model makes Hapoel Migdal HaEmek the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Hapoel Umm al-Fahm. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Hapoel Migdal HaEmek?
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek starts as the favourite with a 105-point Elo edge (1,711 vs 1,605).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hapoel Umm al-Fahm have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Hapoel Migdal HaEmek have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | Maccabi K. Ata Bialik(away) | 0-0 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Hapoel Bnei Musmus(home) | 0-2 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Hapoel Beit Shean(home) | 2-3 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Hapoel Ironi Karmiel(home) | 1-0 | Liga Alef |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Tzeirey Tamra(away) | 4-2 | Liga Alef |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | Tzeirey Tamra(away) | 2-0 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 19, 2026 | Ironi Nesher(home) | 3-0 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Maccabi Ahi Nazareth(away) | 2-4 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm(home) | 3-1 | Liga Alef |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Maccabi Neve Sha'anan(away) | 0-0 | Liga Alef |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Hapoel Migdal HaEmek win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 1-3 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm | Liga Alef |
| Dec 15, 2020 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 0-1 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm | State Cup |
| Mar 19, 2019 | Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 3-0 Hapoel Migdal HaEmek | Liga Alef |
| Nov 16, 2018 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 2-2 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm | Liga Alef |
| Feb 9, 2018 | Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 3-0 Hapoel Migdal HaEmek | Liga Alef |
| Sep 26, 2017 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 0-2 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm | Liga Alef |
Last archived meeting: Hapoel Migdal HaEmek vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm on Dec 14, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm score 1.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Hapoel Migdal HaEmek score 1.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel Umm al-Fahm | 1.4 | 1.7 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Hapoel Migdal HaEmek | 1.8 | 1.0 | 7 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm sit 16th in Liga Alef (11 points from 22 matches) and Hapoel Migdal HaEmek sit 8th (31 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 29 | 23 | 31 |
| 16 | Hapoel Umm al-Fahm | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 37 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Hapoel Migdal HaEmek?
- The Footlab model makes Hapoel Migdal HaEmek the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Hapoel Umm al-Fahm.
- Where and when is Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Hapoel Migdal HaEmek played?
- Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Hapoel Migdal HaEmek is played on December 19, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at HaShalom Stadium, in the Liga Alef.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 19, 2026Hapoel Nazareth IllitvsHapoel Bnei Musmus
- Dec 19, 2026Beitar NahariyavsTira
- Dec 19, 2026Hapoel Tirat HaCarmelvsIroni Nesher
- Dec 19, 2026Ironi Baka El GarbiyavsHapoel Ironi Arraba
- Dec 19, 2026Hapoel Beit SheanvsMaccabi Neve Sha'anan
- Dec 19, 2026Hapoel Ironi KarmielvsMaccabi K. Ata Bialik
- Dec 19, 2026Tzeirey TamravsHapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt
- Dec 19, 2026Tzeirei Umm al-FahmvsMaccabi Nujeidat Ahmed