Harkemase Boys vs Excelsior '31: prediction and stats
KNVB Beker1st Preliminary RoundKick-off on September 1, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark de Bosk, Harkema
The Footlab model makes Harkemase Boys the favourite at 44%, against 23% for a draw and 33% for Excelsior '31. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Harkemase Boys vs Excelsior '31?
A very open match: only 89 Elo points separate Harkemase Boys (1,826) and Excelsior '31 (1,737).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Harkemase Boys have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Excelsior '31 have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | DVS 33 Ermelo(away) | 1-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hollandia(home) | 2-1 | Derde Divisie |
| May 23, 2026 | Sportlust '46(home) | 4-1 | Derde Divisie |
| May 16, 2026 | Hercules(away) | 0-4 | Derde Divisie |
| May 9, 2026 | ROHDA Raalte(home) | 2-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Staphorst(away) | 4-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Eemdijk(home) | 4-0 | Derde Divisie |
| May 23, 2026 | URK(away) | 2-1 | Derde Divisie |
| May 16, 2026 | Staphorst(home) | 3-1 | Derde Divisie |
| May 9, 2026 | TEC(away) | 1-1 | Derde Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Harkemase Boys win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Excelsior '31 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Excelsior '31 0-1 Harkemase Boys | Derde Divisie |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Harkemase Boys 1-2 Excelsior '31 | Derde Divisie |
| May 10, 2025 | Excelsior '31 1-5 Harkemase Boys | Derde Divisie |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Harkemase Boys 1-0 Excelsior '31 | Derde Divisie |
| Apr 15, 2023 | Excelsior '31 4-2 Harkemase Boys | Derde Divisie |
| Oct 29, 2022 | Harkemase Boys 2-0 Excelsior '31 | Derde Divisie |
Last archived meeting: Excelsior '31 vs Harkemase Boys on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Harkemase Boys score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Excelsior '31 score 1.8 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harkemase Boys | 1.4 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Excelsior '31 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Harkemase Boys vs Excelsior '31?
- The Footlab model makes Harkemase Boys the favourite at 44%, against 23% for a draw and 33% for Excelsior '31.
- Where and when is Harkemase Boys vs Excelsior '31 played?
- Harkemase Boys vs Excelsior '31 is played on September 1, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark de Bosk, in the KNVB Beker.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.