Sportlust '46 vs Blauw Geel: prediction and stats
KNVB Beker1st Preliminary RoundKick-off on September 1, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark Cromwijck, Woerden
The Footlab model makes Sportlust '46 the favourite at 45%, against 23% for a draw and 32% for Blauw Geel. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sportlust '46 vs Blauw Geel?
A very open match: only 39 Elo points separate Sportlust '46 (1,738) and Blauw Geel (1,700).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sportlust '46 have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Blauw Geel have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Purmersteijn(home) | 1-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sparta Nijkerk(away) | 3-3 | Derde Divisie |
| May 23, 2026 | Harkemase Boys(away) | 1-4 | Derde Divisie |
| May 16, 2026 | Sparta Nijkerk(home) | 0-2 | Derde Divisie |
| May 9, 2026 | Hercules(home) | 0-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Rijnvogels(home) | 0-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Noordwijk(away) | 0-2 | Derde Divisie |
| May 23, 2026 | Zwaluwen(away) | 0-3 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| May 16, 2026 | SVV Scheveningen(home) | 3-2 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| May 10, 2026 | Roosendaal(away) | 1-2 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Sportlust '46 win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Blauw Geel win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2024 | Sportlust '46 2-1 Blauw Geel | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Sep 9, 2023 | Blauw Geel 1-2 Sportlust '46 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
Last archived meeting: Sportlust '46 vs Blauw Geel on Feb 3, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Sportlust '46 score 1.3 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Blauw Geel score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sportlust '46 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Blauw Geel | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sportlust '46 vs Blauw Geel?
- The Footlab model makes Sportlust '46 the favourite at 45%, against 23% for a draw and 32% for Blauw Geel.
- Where and when is Sportlust '46 vs Blauw Geel played?
- Sportlust '46 vs Blauw Geel is played on September 1, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark Cromwijck, in the KNVB Beker.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.