ADO '20 vs Excelsior Maassluis: prediction and stats
KNVB Beker1st Preliminary RoundKick-off on September 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark De Vlotter veld 1, Heemskerk
The Footlab model makes Excelsior Maassluis the favourite at 41%, against 23% for a draw and 36% for ADO '20. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ADO '20 vs Excelsior Maassluis?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate ADO '20 (1,763) and Excelsior Maassluis (1,816).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ADO '20 have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Excelsior Maassluis have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Eemdijk(away) | 1-4 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Hercules(home) | 3-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Koninklijke HFC(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Ijsselmeervogels(away) | 0-1 | Tweede Divisie |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Ijsselmeervogels(home) | 0-7 | Tweede Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Groene Ster(home) | 3-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | UDI '19(away) | 1-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam II(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Ijsselmeervogels(away) | 0-1 | Tweede Divisie |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Ijsselmeervogels(home) | 2-1 | Tweede Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 ADO '20 win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Excelsior Maassluis win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2025 | Excelsior Maassluis 2-0 ADO '20 | Tweede Divisie |
| Feb 4, 2025 | ADO '20 0-4 Excelsior Maassluis | Tweede Divisie |
| Mar 23, 2024 | ADO '20 3-0 Excelsior Maassluis | Tweede Divisie |
| Oct 14, 2023 | Excelsior Maassluis 0-1 ADO '20 | Tweede Divisie |
Last archived meeting: Excelsior Maassluis vs ADO '20 on May 17, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
ADO '20 score 1.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Excelsior Maassluis score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO '20 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Excelsior Maassluis | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ADO '20 vs Excelsior Maassluis?
- The Footlab model makes Excelsior Maassluis the favourite at 41%, against 23% for a draw and 36% for ADO '20.
- Where and when is ADO '20 vs Excelsior Maassluis played?
- ADO '20 vs Excelsior Maassluis is played on September 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark De Vlotter veld 1, in the KNVB Beker.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.