Hartlepool vs Boston United: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 24Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The Suit Direct Stadium, Hartlepool, County Durham
The Footlab model makes Boston United the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Hartlepool. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hartlepool vs Boston United?
A very open match: only 26 Elo points separate Hartlepool (1,763) and Boston United (1,789).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hartlepool have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Boston United have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sutton Utd(away) | 1-2 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Aldershot Town(away) | 1-0 | National League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Middlesbrough U21(home) | 0-10 | National League Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Barrow(home) | 2-0 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Altrincham(home) | 1-0 | National League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Birmingham City U21(home) | 2-3 | National League Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Solihull Moors(away) | 2-0 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Aldershot Town(home) | 0-1 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hednesford Town(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Hartlepool win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Boston United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Boston United 3-1 Hartlepool | National League |
| Sep 3, 2025 | Hartlepool 1-1 Boston United | National League |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Hartlepool 4-1 Boston United | National League |
| Sep 10, 2024 | Boston United 1-2 Hartlepool | National League |
Last archived meeting: Boston United vs Hartlepool on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Hartlepool score 1.4 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Boston United score 1.1 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hartlepool | 1.4 | 2.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Boston United | 1.1 | 0.8 | 6 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Hartlepool sit 5th in National League (6 points from 3 matches) and Boston United sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Hartlepool | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Boston United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hartlepool vs Boston United?
- The Footlab model makes Boston United the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Hartlepool.
- Where and when is Hartlepool vs Boston United played?
- Hartlepool vs Boston United is played on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The Suit Direct Stadium, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.