Where and when is Hatayspor vs Erbaaspor played?

Hatayspor vs Erbaaspor is played on October 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Mersin Stadyumu, in the 2. Lig.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Hatayspor vs Erbaaspor: prediction and stats

2. Lig2. Lig White Group - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Mersin Stadyumu, Mersin

Hatayspor

Erbaaspor

The Footlab model makes Hatayspor the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Erbaaspor. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Hatayspor vs Erbaaspor?

A very open match: only 22 Elo points separate Hatayspor (1,578) and Erbaaspor (1,600).

Hatayspor win38 %

Draw26 %

Erbaaspor win36 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hatayspor have 2 wins, 1 draws and 12 defeats; Erbaaspor have 3, 5 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Hatayspor
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 1, 2026	Vanspor FK(home)	3-1	1. Lig
Apr 25, 2026	Serik Spor(away)	2-4	1. Lig
Apr 18, 2026	Sakaryaspor(home)	1-1	1. Lig
Apr 11, 2026	Sarıyer(away)	0-4	1. Lig
Apr 7, 2026	Adana Demirspor(home)	4-0	1. Lig

Erbaaspor
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Apr 25, 2026	Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı(away)	1-3	2. Lig
Apr 19, 2026	Ankaragücü(home)	1-1	2. Lig
Apr 12, 2026	Elazığspor(away)	0-3	2. Lig
Apr 8, 2026	Adana 01 FK(home)	0-2	2. Lig
Apr 4, 2026	24 Erzincanspor(away)	2-3	2. Lig

How many goals should we expect?

Hatayspor score 1.0 and concede 2.8 goals per match over their last 15; Erbaaspor score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Hatayspor	1.0	2.8	1	8/15	13/15
Erbaaspor	0.9	1.5	3	9/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
15	Erbaaspor	36	10	7	19	40	61	34

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Hatayspor vs Erbaaspor?: The Footlab model makes Hatayspor the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Erbaaspor.
Where and when is Hatayspor vs Erbaaspor played?: Hatayspor vs Erbaaspor is played on October 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Mersin Stadyumu, in the 2. Lig.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.