Hegelmann II vs Dainava: prediction and stats
1 LygaRegular Season - 25Kick-off on September 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Dainava the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Hegelmann II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hegelmann II vs Dainava?
Dainava starts as the favourite with a 287-point Elo edge (1,484 vs 1,197).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hegelmann II have 4 wins, 0 draws and 11 defeats; Dainava have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Ekranas(home) | 3-2 | 1 Lyga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Be1 NFA(away) | 1-2 | 1 Lyga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Garliava(home) | 3-1 | 1 Lyga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Minija(home) | 0-4 | 1 Lyga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Atmosfera(away) | 1-4 | 1 Lyga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Atmosfera(home) | 1-1 | 1 Lyga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | BFA(home) | 0-0 | 1 Lyga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Babrungas(home) | 2-1 | 1 Lyga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Tauras(home) | 1-1 | 1 Lyga |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Transinvest 2(home) | 3-1 | 1 Lyga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Hegelmann II win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Dainava win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | Dainava 3-2 Hegelmann II | 1 Lyga |
Last archived meeting: Dainava vs Hegelmann II on May 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Hegelmann II score 1.2 and concede 2.4 goals per match over their last 15; Dainava score 1.7 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hegelmann II | 1.2 | 2.4 | 1 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Dainava | 1.7 | 0.8 | 7 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Hegelmann II sit 12th in 1 Lyga (19 points from 21 matches) and Dainava sit 6th (36 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Dainava | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 33 | 19 | 36 |
| 12 | Hegelmann II | 21 | 6 | 1 | 14 | 24 | 47 | 19 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hegelmann II vs Dainava?
- The Footlab model makes Dainava the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Hegelmann II.
- Where and when is Hegelmann II vs Dainava played?
- Hegelmann II vs Dainava is played on September 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the 1 Lyga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.