Helmond Sport vs MVV: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 27Kick-off on February 20, 2027 at 03:30 PM (UTC)GS Staalwerken Stadion, Helmond
The Footlab model makes Helmond Sport the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for MVV. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Helmond Sport vs MVV?
A very open match: only 33 Elo points separate Helmond Sport (1,582) and MVV (1,615).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Helmond Sport have 2 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats; MVV have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Waalwijk(home) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Roda(away) | 1-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | De Graafschap(home) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | St. Truiden(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Gemert(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | FC Volendam(home) | 1-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(away) | 3-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Jong Utrecht(home) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Patro Eisden(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | KAA Gent II(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Helmond Sport win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 MVV win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2026 | MVV 0-0 Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Helmond Sport 2-4 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 7, 2025 | Helmond Sport 4-0 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 27, 2024 | MVV 1-2 Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
| Apr 5, 2024 | MVV 3-0 Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
| Dec 8, 2023 | Helmond Sport 1-2 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Helmond Sport score 0.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; MVV score 1.2 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helmond Sport | 0.8 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 3/15 |
| MVV | 1.2 | 1.6 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Helmond Sport sit 16th in Eerste Divisie (2 points from 3 matches) and MVV sit 3rd (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | MVV | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | MVV | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 16 | Helmond Sport | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 16 | Helmond Sport | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Helmond Sport vs MVV?
- The Footlab model makes Helmond Sport the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for MVV.
- Where and when is Helmond Sport vs MVV played?
- Helmond Sport vs MVV is played on February 20, 2027 at 03:30 PM (UTC) at GS Staalwerken Stadion, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.