Roda vs De Graafschap: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 17Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 03:45 PM (UTC)Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Kerkrade
The Footlab AI model makes Roda the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for De Graafschap. The most likely score is 1-1. If Roda wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Roda vs De Graafschap?
On Elo ratings, Roda has 1,717 points and De Graafschap 1,691.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Roda vs De Graafschap
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Roda
3-4-2-1- 9A. van den Hurk
- 4J. Nisbet
- 5K. Jansen
- 11D. Dorenbosch
- 25Bram Marsman
- 14X. van den Berg
- 8J. Mensah
- 3M. Tol
- 15L. Beerten
- 33D. Van den Buijs
- 1J. Treichel
De Graafschap
4-2-3-1- 9J. Kania
- 8D. Warmerdam
- 21K. Symons
- 10F. de Jong
- 7Bjorn van Zijl
- 23M. Diemers
- 3R. Besselink
- 16N. Martens
- 2J. Wieckhoff
- 15T. Kok
- 1T. Wieggers
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 02:21 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Roda have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; De Graafschap have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Jong PSV U21(home) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 4, 2026 | VVV Venlo(away) | 0-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Waalwijk(home) | 2-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Jong Ajax(away) | 0-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Vitesse(home) | 1-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Jong Utrecht(home) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 3, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(away) | 2-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Den Bosch(home) | 1-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 20, 2026 | NAC Breda(home) | 1-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Emmen(away) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Roda wins, 2 draws, 2 De Graafschap wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2025 | De Graafschap 2-3 Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Roda 1-0 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| Apr 6, 2025 | De Graafschap 2-0 Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Roda 1-4 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| Apr 19, 2024 | Roda 1-1 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 29, 2023 | De Graafschap 0-0 Roda | Eerste Divisie |
Last archived meeting: De Graafschap vs Roda on Dec 12, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Roda score 1.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; De Graafschap score 1.6 and concede 3.0. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| De Graafschap | 1.6 | 3.0 | 1 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Roda sit 6th in Eerste Divisie (16 points from 10 matches) and De Graafschap sit 16th (11 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Roda | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 16 |
| 16 | De Graafschap | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 23 | 11 |
A question about Roda vs De Graafschap?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Roda vs De Graafschap?
- The Footlab AI model makes Roda the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for De Graafschap.
- Where and when is Roda vs De Graafschap played?
- Roda vs De Graafschap is played on November 29, 2026 at 03:45 PM (UTC) at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.