Hercules vs DVS 33 Ermelo: prediction and stats
Derde DivisieRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Sportpark Voordorp (USV Hercules), Utrecht
The Footlab model makes DVS 33 Ermelo the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Hercules. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hercules vs DVS 33 Ermelo?
A very open match: only 86 Elo points separate Hercules (1,746) and DVS 33 Ermelo (1,832).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hercules have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; DVS 33 Ermelo have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | SC Genemuiden(home) | 0-4 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 16, 2026 | ADO '20(away) | 1-3 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rijnsburgse Boys(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | TEC(away) | 0-0 | Derde Divisie |
| May 16, 2026 | Harkemase Boys(home) | 4-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Harkemase Boys(home) | 0-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | SC Genemuiden(away) | 1-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | GVVV Veenendaal(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 30, 2026 | Rijnvogels(home) | 2-2 | Tweede Divisie |
| May 27, 2026 | Rijnvogels(away) | 0-1 | Tweede Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Hercules win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 DVS 33 Ermelo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | DVS 33 Ermelo 3-2 Hercules | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Hercules 0-2 DVS 33 Ermelo | Derde Divisie |
| May 24, 2025 | DVS 33 Ermelo 4-3 Hercules | Derde Divisie |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Hercules 4-4 DVS 33 Ermelo | Derde Divisie |
| Feb 3, 2024 | DVS 33 Ermelo 0-2 Hercules | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 9, 2023 | Hercules 2-0 DVS 33 Ermelo | Derde Divisie |
Last archived meeting: DVS 33 Ermelo vs Hercules on Feb 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Hercules score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; DVS 33 Ermelo score 1.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hercules | 1.7 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| DVS 33 Ermelo | 1.5 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Hercules sit 18th in Derde Divisie (0 points from 2 matches) and DVS 33 Ermelo sit 16th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | DVS 33 Ermelo | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Hercules | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hercules vs DVS 33 Ermelo?
- The Footlab model makes DVS 33 Ermelo the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Hercules.
- Where and when is Hercules vs DVS 33 Ermelo played?
- Hercules vs DVS 33 Ermelo is played on October 3, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Sportpark Voordorp (USV Hercules), in the Derde Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.