Hércules vs Real Murcia: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 1Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC)Estadio José Rico Pérez, Alicante
The Footlab model makes Hércules the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Real Murcia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hércules vs Real Murcia?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Hércules (1,877) and Real Murcia (1,931).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hércules have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Real Murcia have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Alcoyano(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Castellón(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Gimnastic(home) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 16, 2026 | Algeciras(away) | 2-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 9, 2026 | Ibiza(home) | 2-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Albacete(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Cieza(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Eldense(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Port Vale(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Eldense(home) | 3-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Hércules win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Real Murcia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Hércules 2-0 Real Murcia | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Jan 11, 2026 | Real Murcia 1-1 Hércules | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Jan 18, 2025 | Real Murcia 1-0 Hércules | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Hércules 2-0 Real Murcia | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Hércules 2-1 Real Murcia | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 10, 2022 | Real Murcia 1-1 Hércules | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
Last archived meeting: Hércules vs Real Murcia on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Hércules score 1.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Real Murcia score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hércules | 1.0 | 0.9 | 6 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Real Murcia | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Hércules sit 9th in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 (54 points from 38 matches) and Real Murcia sit 10th (52 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hércules | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 43 | 41 | 54 |
| 10 | Real Murcia | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 43 | 40 | 52 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hércules vs Real Murcia?
- The Footlab model makes Hércules the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Real Murcia.
- Where and when is Hércules vs Real Murcia played?
- Hércules vs Real Murcia is played on August 29, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at Estadio José Rico Pérez, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.