Horsham vs Chesham United: prediction and stats
National League - SouthNational League South - 9Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The Camping World Community Stadium, Horsham, West Sussex
The Footlab model makes Horsham the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Chesham United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Horsham vs Chesham United?
A very open match: only 28 Elo points separate Horsham (1,816) and Chesham United (1,788).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Horsham have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Chesham United have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Braintree(away) | 2-1 | National League - South |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Hampton & Richmond(home) | 2-0 | National League - South |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Salisbury(home) | 0-0 | National League - South |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Torquay(away) | 1-1 | National League - South |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Worthing(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Walton & Hersham(home) | 2-0 | National League - South |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Farnborough(away) | 0-1 | National League - South |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Braintree(away) | 2-3 | National League - South |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Weston-super-Mare(away) | 0-3 | National League - South |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Chertsey Town(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Horsham win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Chesham United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | Horsham 1-2 Chesham United | National League - South |
| Aug 19, 2025 | Chesham United 0-0 Horsham | National League - South |
| Oct 22, 2011 | Chesham United 5-0 Horsham | FA Trophy |
Last archived meeting: Horsham vs Chesham United on Dec 20, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Horsham score 1.2 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Chesham United score 1.8 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horsham | 1.2 | 1.2 | 5 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Chesham United | 1.8 | 1.8 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Horsham sit 2nd in National League - South (8 points from 4 matches) and Chesham United sit 18th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Horsham | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 18 | Chesham United | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Horsham vs Chesham United?
- The Footlab model makes Horsham the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Chesham United.
- Where and when is Horsham vs Chesham United played?
- Horsham vs Chesham United is played on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The Camping World Community Stadium, in the National League - South.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 12, 2026TorquayvsDorking Wanderers
- Sep 12, 2026BraintreevsMaidstone Utd
- Sep 12, 2026MaidenheadvsBillericay Town
- Sep 12, 2026Ebbsfleet UnitedvsSalisbury
- Sep 12, 2026Hampton & RichmondvsChelmsford City
- Sep 12, 2026Weston-super-MarevsDagenham & Redbridge
- Sep 12, 2026Truro CityvsWalton & Hersham
- Sep 12, 2026AFC TottonvsSlough Town