Huétor Vega vs Mancha Real: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 5Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Las Viñas, Huétor Vega
The Footlab model makes Huétor Vega the favourite at 55%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Mancha Real. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Huétor Vega vs Mancha Real?
A very open match: only 65 Elo points separate Huétor Vega (1,756) and Mancha Real (1,691).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Huétor Vega have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Mancha Real have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Martos(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 3, 2026 | Mijas Las Lagunas(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Marbelli(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Mancha Real(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Arenas Armilla(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Alhaurino(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 3, 2026 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Granada II(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Huétor Vega(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Huétor Tájar(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Huétor Vega win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Mancha Real win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Mancha Real 2-1 Huétor Vega | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Huétor Vega 1-0 Mancha Real | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Mancha Real 1-2 Huétor Vega | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Huétor Vega 1-0 Mancha Real | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Mar 10, 2024 | Huétor Vega 3-1 Mancha Real | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Mancha Real 0-2 Huétor Vega | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
Last archived meeting: Mancha Real vs Huétor Vega on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Huétor Vega score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Mancha Real score 1.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huétor Vega | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Mancha Real | 1.0 | 1.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Huétor Vega sit 10th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (45 points from 34 matches) and Mancha Real sit 14th (37 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Huétor Vega | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 43 | 42 | 45 |
| 14 | Mancha Real | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 30 | 38 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Huétor Vega vs Mancha Real?
- The Footlab model makes Huétor Vega the favourite at 55%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Mancha Real.
- Where and when is Huétor Vega vs Mancha Real played?
- Huétor Vega vs Mancha Real is played on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Las Viñas, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.