Torre del Mar vs Arenas Armilla: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 5Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Juan Manuel Azuaga, Torre del Mar
The Footlab model makes Torre del Mar the favourite at 42%, against 32% for a draw and 25% for Arenas Armilla. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Torre del Mar vs Arenas Armilla?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Torre del Mar (1,799) and Arenas Armilla (1,783).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Torre del Mar have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Arenas Armilla have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Arenas Armilla(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 17, 2026 | Arenas Armilla(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 10, 2026 | Torreperogil(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 3, 2026 | Atlético Porcuna(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Motril(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | Peña Deportiva(away) | 2-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Peña Deportiva(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Motril(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 31, 2026 | Motril(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 24, 2026 | Torre del Mar(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Torre del Mar win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Arenas Armilla win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Torre del Mar 0-1 Arenas Armilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 17, 2026 | Arenas Armilla 1-0 Torre del Mar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Torre del Mar 1-1 Arenas Armilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Arenas Armilla 2-0 Torre del Mar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Mar 23, 2025 | Torre del Mar 3-0 Arenas Armilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Arenas Armilla 1-2 Torre del Mar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
Last archived meeting: Torre del Mar vs Arenas Armilla on May 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Torre del Mar score 0.7 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Arenas Armilla score 1.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 31% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torre del Mar | 0.7 | 0.8 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Arenas Armilla | 1.1 | 1.4 | 3 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Torre del Mar sit 3rd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (55 points from 34 matches) and Arenas Armilla sit 4th (54 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Torre del Mar | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 37 | 26 | 55 |
| 4 | Arenas Armilla | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 29 | 54 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Torre del Mar vs Arenas Armilla?
- The Footlab model makes Torre del Mar the favourite at 42%, against 32% for a draw and 25% for Arenas Armilla.
- Where and when is Torre del Mar vs Arenas Armilla played?
- Torre del Mar vs Arenas Armilla is played on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Juan Manuel Azuaga, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 31% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.