Malaga City vs Marbelli: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 5Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo Municipal El Pozuelo, Torremolinos
The Footlab model makes Marbelli the favourite at 38%, against 32% for a draw and 30% for Malaga City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Malaga City vs Marbelli?
Marbelli starts as the favourite with a 180-point Elo edge (1,773 vs 1,592).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Malaga City have 2 wins, 2 draws and 11 defeats; Marbelli have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | Arenas Armilla(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 4, 2025 | Polideportivo Almería(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 1, 2025 | Real Jaén(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Mancha Real(home) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Mijas Las Lagunas(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 3, 2026 | Granada II(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Huétor Vega(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Huétor Tájar(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | UD Melilla II(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Malaga City win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Marbelli win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2025 | Malaga City 1-2 Marbelli | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Marbelli 2-2 Malaga City | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
Last archived meeting: Malaga City vs Marbelli on Mar 16, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Malaga City score 1.0 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Marbelli score 0.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga City | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Marbelli | 0.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Marbelli | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 36 | 28 | 51 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Malaga City vs Marbelli?
- The Footlab model makes Marbelli the favourite at 38%, against 32% for a draw and 30% for Malaga City.
- Where and when is Malaga City vs Marbelli played?
- Malaga City vs Marbelli is played on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Municipal El Pozuelo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.