Institute vs Rathfriland: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 20Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Londonderry
The Footlab AI model makes Institute the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Rathfriland. The most likely score is 1-1. If Institute wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,824 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 29, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Institute vs Rathfriland?
A very open match: only 68 Elo points separate Institute (1,438) and Rathfriland (1,370).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Institute vs Rathfriland
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Institute
Not enough data to predict the Institute lineup.
Rathfriland
4-3-3- RRuairi Fitzpatrick
- EE. Rooney
- DD. Tate
- AAndrew Kilmartin
- 23J. Corbett
- MMaurice Jack Chambers
- JJ. Barbour
- DDaniel Devlin
- JJ. Cooper
- BB. Johnston
- SS. Maguire
Computed on October 29, 2026 at 06:57 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Institute have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Rathfriland have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | Loughgall(home) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Ards(away) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | H&W Welders(home) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Newington Youth(home) | 7-0 | Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Annagh United(away) | 0-5 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | Ards(home) | 0-0 | League Cup |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Dundela(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Armagh City(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | H&W Welders(away) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Warrenpoint Town(home) | 0-2 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 1 Institute win, 0 draws, 0 Rathfriland wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Rathfriland 0-2 Institute | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Rathfriland vs Institute on Sep 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Institute score 1.6 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Rathfriland score 1.3 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Institute | 1.6 | 1.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Rathfriland | 1.3 | 1.6 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Institute sit 7th in Championship (59 points from 38 matches) and Rathfriland sit 15th (6 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | InstituteChampionship 1: Relegation Group | 38 | 17 | 8 | 13 | 59 | 46 | 59 |
| 15 | RathfrilandChampionship 1 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 22 | 6 |
A question about Institute vs Rathfriland?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Institute vs Rathfriland?
- The Footlab AI model makes Institute the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Rathfriland.
- Where and when is Institute vs Rathfriland played?
- Institute vs Rathfriland is played on December 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.