Internacional Palmira vs Union Magdalena: prediction and stats
Primera BClausura - 14Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Internacional Palmira the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Union Magdalena. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Internacional Palmira vs Union Magdalena?
A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Internacional Palmira (1,602) and Union Magdalena (1,617).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Internacional Palmira have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Union Magdalena have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Barranquilla(home) | 1-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Quindio(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Bogota FC(home) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Internacional de Bogota(home) | 1-2 | Copa Colombia |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Patriotas(away) | 1-3 | Primera B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Tigres FC(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Santa Fe(away) | 0-2 | Copa Colombia |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Orsomarso(home) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Bogota FC(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| May 21, 2026 | Bogota FC(home) | 0-0 | Primera B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Internacional Palmira win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Union Magdalena win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2026 | Union Magdalena 0-2 Internacional Palmira | Primera B |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Union Magdalena 1-0 Internacional Palmira | Primera B |
| Apr 19, 2024 | Internacional Palmira 0-2 Union Magdalena | Primera B |
Last archived meeting: Union Magdalena vs Internacional Palmira on Apr 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Internacional Palmira score 0.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Union Magdalena score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internacional Palmira | 0.9 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Union Magdalena | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Internacional Palmira sit 1st in Primera B (38 points from 15 matches) and Union Magdalena sit 3rd (32 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internacional Palmira | 15 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 13 | 38 |
| 1 | Internacional Palmira | 15 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 13 | 38 |
| 2 | Union Magdalena | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 32 |
| 2 | Union Magdalena | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | Internacional Palmira | 25 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 35 | 20 | 50 |
| 3 | Union Magdalena | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 32 |
| 3 | Internacional Palmira | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Union Magdalena | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 35 | 21 | 42 |
| 11 | Internacional Palmira | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| 12 | Internacional Palmira | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 16 | Union Magdalena | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 16 | Union Magdalena | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Internacional Palmira vs Union Magdalena?
- The Footlab model makes Internacional Palmira the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Union Magdalena.
- Where and when is Internacional Palmira vs Union Magdalena played?
- Internacional Palmira vs Union Magdalena is played on October 10, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC), in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.