Real Santander vs Leones FC: prediction and stats
Primera BClausura - 14Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Fútbol Erwin O'Neil, San Andrés y Providencia
The Footlab model makes Real Santander the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Leones FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Santander vs Leones FC?
A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate Real Santander (1,349) and Leones FC (1,430).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Santander have 1 wins, 4 draws and 10 defeats; Leones FC have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Ind. Yumbo(home) | 1-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Barranquilla(home) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Depor FC(away) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Patriotas(home) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Real Cartagena(away) | 1-5 | Primera B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Real Cartagena(home) | 1-6 | Primera B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Real Soacha(home) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Bogota FC(away) | 1-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Quindio(home) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Tigres FC(away) | 1-0 | Primera B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Real Santander win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Leones FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Leones FC 1-0 Real Santander | Primera B |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Leones FC 1-1 Real Santander | Primera B |
| Mar 17, 2025 | Real Santander 1-0 Leones FC | Primera B |
| Jul 22, 2024 | Leones FC 2-0 Real Santander | Primera B |
| Feb 3, 2024 | Real Santander 0-0 Leones FC | Primera B |
| Sep 9, 2023 | Real Santander 2-1 Leones FC | Primera B |
Last archived meeting: Leones FC vs Real Santander on Apr 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Santander score 0.8 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Leones FC score 0.8 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Santander | 0.8 | 2.3 | 1 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Leones FC | 0.8 | 1.4 | 6 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Santander sit 16th in Primera B (7 points from 15 matches) and Leones FC sit 14th (10 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Leones FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Leones FC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 8 |
| 8 | Real Santander | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 6 |
| 13 | Leones FC | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 32 | 18 |
| 13 | Real Santander | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 2 |
| 14 | Leones FC | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 24 | 10 |
| 14 | Leones FC | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 24 | 10 |
| 15 | Real Santander | 20 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 17 | 34 | 13 |
| 16 | Real Santander | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 23 | 7 |
| 16 | Real Santander | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 23 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Santander vs Leones FC?
- The Footlab model makes Real Santander the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Leones FC.
- Where and when is Real Santander vs Leones FC played?
- Real Santander vs Leones FC is played on October 10, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Fútbol Erwin O'Neil, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.