Ironi Baka El Garbiya vs Hapoel Migdal HaEmek: prediction and stats
Liga AlefNorth - 25Kick-off on February 20, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Baqa al-Gharbiyye Stadium, Baqa al-Gharbiyye
The Footlab model makes Hapoel Migdal HaEmek the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Ironi Baka El Garbiya. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ironi Baka El Garbiya vs Hapoel Migdal HaEmek?
A very open match: only 9 Elo points separate Ironi Baka El Garbiya (1,701) and Hapoel Migdal HaEmek (1,710).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ironi Baka El Garbiya have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Hapoel Migdal HaEmek have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | Ironi Nesher(away) | 0-0 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Maccabi Ahi Nazareth(home) | 0-3 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm(away) | 0-1 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Maccabi Neve Sha'anan(home) | 4-1 | Liga Alef |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed(away) | 1-2 | Liga Alef |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | Tzeirey Tamra(away) | 2-0 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 19, 2026 | Ironi Nesher(home) | 3-0 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Maccabi Ahi Nazareth(away) | 2-4 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm(home) | 3-1 | Liga Alef |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Maccabi Neve Sha'anan(away) | 0-0 | Liga Alef |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Ironi Baka El Garbiya win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Hapoel Migdal HaEmek win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | Ironi Baka El Garbiya 2-1 Hapoel Migdal HaEmek | Liga Alef |
| Sep 5, 2025 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 0-0 Ironi Baka El Garbiya | Liga Alef |
| Jan 3, 2025 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 2-2 Ironi Baka El Garbiya | Liga Alef |
| Mar 15, 2024 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 0-2 Ironi Baka El Garbiya | Liga Alef |
| Dec 22, 2023 | Ironi Baka El Garbiya 0-0 Hapoel Migdal HaEmek | Liga Alef |
| Sep 1, 2023 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 1-3 Ironi Baka El Garbiya | State Cup |
Last archived meeting: Ironi Baka El Garbiya vs Hapoel Migdal HaEmek on Jan 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ironi Baka El Garbiya score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Hapoel Migdal HaEmek score 1.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ironi Baka El Garbiya | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Hapoel Migdal HaEmek | 1.8 | 1.0 | 7 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ironi Baka El Garbiya sit 9th in Liga Alef (31 points from 22 matches) and Hapoel Migdal HaEmek sit 8th (31 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 29 | 23 | 31 |
| 9 | Ironi Baka El Garbiya | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 33 | 30 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ironi Baka El Garbiya vs Hapoel Migdal HaEmek?
- The Footlab model makes Hapoel Migdal HaEmek the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Ironi Baka El Garbiya.
- Where and when is Ironi Baka El Garbiya vs Hapoel Migdal HaEmek played?
- Ironi Baka El Garbiya vs Hapoel Migdal HaEmek is played on February 20, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Baqa al-Gharbiyye Stadium, in the Liga Alef.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Feb 20, 2027Hapoel Nazareth IllitvsHapoel Ironi Karmiel
- Feb 20, 2027Hapoel Umm al-FahmvsMaccabi K. Ata Bialik
- Feb 20, 2027Ironi NeshervsMaccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
- Feb 20, 2027Hapoel Bnei MusmusvsHapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt
- Feb 20, 2027Hapoel Tirat HaCarmelvsTira
- Feb 20, 2027Maccabi Neve Sha'ananvsHapoel Ironi Arraba
- Feb 20, 2027Hapoel Beit SheanvsBeitar Nahariya
- Feb 20, 2027Tzeirey TamravsTzeirei Umm al-Fahm