Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm vs Ironi Baka El Garbiya: prediction and stats
Liga AlefNorth - 26Kick-off on February 27, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)HaShalom Stadium, Umm al-Fahm
The Footlab model makes Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Ironi Baka El Garbiya. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm vs Ironi Baka El Garbiya?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm (1,657) and Ironi Baka El Garbiya (1,701).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Ironi Baka El Garbiya have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | Maccabi Neve Sha'anan(home) | 1-2 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed(away) | 2-1 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Ironi Baka El Garbiya(home) | 1-0 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek(away) | 1-3 | Liga Alef |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Hapoel Ironi Arraba(home) | 3-0 | Liga Alef |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | Ironi Nesher(away) | 0-0 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Maccabi Ahi Nazareth(home) | 0-3 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm(away) | 0-1 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Maccabi Neve Sha'anan(home) | 4-1 | Liga Alef |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed(away) | 1-2 | Liga Alef |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Ironi Baka El Garbiya win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2026 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm 1-0 Ironi Baka El Garbiya | Liga Alef |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Ironi Baka El Garbiya 2-1 Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | Liga Alef |
| Jan 10, 2025 | Ironi Baka El Garbiya 0-0 Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | Liga Alef |
| Apr 8, 2024 | Ironi Baka El Garbiya 7-2 Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | Liga Alef |
| Jan 19, 2024 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm 2-2 Ironi Baka El Garbiya | Liga Alef |
Last archived meeting: Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm vs Ironi Baka El Garbiya on Feb 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Ironi Baka El Garbiya score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | 1.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Ironi Baka El Garbiya | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm sit 10th in Liga Alef (30 points from 22 matches) and Ironi Baka El Garbiya sit 9th (31 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Ironi Baka El Garbiya | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 33 | 30 | 31 |
| 10 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 29 | 25 | 30 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm vs Ironi Baka El Garbiya?
- The Footlab model makes Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Ironi Baka El Garbiya.
- Where and when is Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm vs Ironi Baka El Garbiya played?
- Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm vs Ironi Baka El Garbiya is played on February 27, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at HaShalom Stadium, in the Liga Alef.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Feb 27, 2027Beitar NahariyavsHapoel Nazareth Illit
- Feb 27, 2027Hapoel Ihud Bnei JattvsMaccabi Neve Sha'anan
- Feb 27, 2027Hapoel Migdal HaEmekvsHapoel Bnei Musmus
- Feb 27, 2027Maccabi Nujeidat AhmedvsHapoel Umm al-Fahm
- Feb 27, 2027TiravsHapoel Beit Shean
- Feb 27, 2027Hapoel Ironi KarmielvsTzeirey Tamra
- Feb 27, 2027Maccabi K. Ata BialikvsHapoel Tirat HaCarmel
- Feb 27, 2027Hapoel Ironi ArrabavsIroni Nesher