Irtysh vs Aktobe: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 24Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Ortalıq Stadion, Pavlodar
The Footlab model makes Aktobe the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Irtysh. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Irtysh vs Aktobe?
Aktobe starts as the favourite with a 130-point Elo edge (1,611 vs 1,481).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Irtysh have 2 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats; Aktobe have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | FK Tobol Kostanay(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Yelimay Semey(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kaspiy(home) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Ulytau(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Zhenys(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kaisar(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Atyrau(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kyzyl-Zhar(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Okzhetpes(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Altay(away) | 4-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Irtysh win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Aktobe win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Aktobe 1-0 Irtysh | Premier League |
| Aug 25, 2019 | Aktobe 1-1 Irtysh | Premier League |
| Jun 30, 2019 | Aktobe 2-1 Irtysh | Premier League |
| Apr 20, 2019 | Irtysh 0-1 Aktobe | Premier League |
| Apr 10, 2019 | Aktobe 5-5 Irtysh | Cup |
| Sep 26, 2018 | Aktobe 2-0 Irtysh | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Irtysh score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Aktobe score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irtysh | 0.9 | 1.5 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Aktobe | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Irtysh sit 15th in Premier League (17 points from 21 matches) and Aktobe sit 5th (35 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aktobe | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 26 | 35 |
| 15 | Irtysh | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 17 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Irtysh vs Aktobe?
- The Footlab model makes Aktobe the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Irtysh.
- Where and when is Irtysh vs Aktobe played?
- Irtysh vs Aktobe is played on August 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Ortalıq Stadion, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.