Yelimay Semey vs Kairat Almaty: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 24Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Spartak, Semipalatinsk
The Footlab model makes Kairat Almaty the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Yelimay Semey. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Yelimay Semey vs Kairat Almaty?
Kairat Almaty starts as the favourite with a 160-point Elo edge (1,788 vs 1,628).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Yelimay Semey have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Kairat Almaty have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kaspiy(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Irtysh(home) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Zhenys(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Kaisar(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Ordabasy(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Anderlecht(home) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ulytau(home) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Levski Sofia(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Omonia Nicosia(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Yelimay Semey win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Kairat Almaty win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Kairat Almaty 2-2 Yelimay Semey | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Kairat Almaty 2-3 Yelimay Semey | Premier League |
| May 18, 2025 | Yelimay Semey 1-0 Kairat Almaty | Premier League |
| Aug 3, 2024 | Kairat Almaty 4-1 Yelimay Semey | Premier League |
| May 19, 2024 | Yelimay Semey 1-1 Kairat Almaty | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Kairat Almaty vs Yelimay Semey on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Yelimay Semey score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Kairat Almaty score 1.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yelimay Semey | 1.4 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Kairat Almaty | 1.9 | 0.9 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Yelimay Semey sit 6th in Premier League (32 points from 21 matches) and Kairat Almaty sit 2nd (48 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 42 | 15 | 48 |
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 31 | 26 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Yelimay Semey vs Kairat Almaty?
- The Footlab model makes Kairat Almaty the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Yelimay Semey.
- Where and when is Yelimay Semey vs Kairat Almaty played?
- Yelimay Semey vs Kairat Almaty is played on August 30, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Spartak, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.