Kaspiy vs FK Tobol Kostanay: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 24Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Jas kanat, Aktau
The Footlab model makes Kaspiy the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for FK Tobol Kostanay. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kaspiy vs FK Tobol Kostanay?
A very open match: only 71 Elo points separate Kaspiy (1,537) and FK Tobol Kostanay (1,608).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kaspiy have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; FK Tobol Kostanay have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Yelimay Semey(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ulytau(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Irtysh(away) | 2-3 | Premier League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Zhenys(home) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Kaisar(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Irtysh(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | FK Partizan(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | FK Partizan(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Ordabasy(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Panevėžys(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Kaspiy win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 FK Tobol Kostanay win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | FK Tobol Kostanay 2-1 Kaspiy | Premier League |
| Oct 21, 2023 | FK Tobol Kostanay 1-1 Kaspiy | Premier League |
| Mar 10, 2023 | Kaspiy 0-1 FK Tobol Kostanay | Premier League |
| Jun 19, 2022 | FK Tobol Kostanay 1-0 Kaspiy | Premier League |
| Mar 11, 2022 | Kaspiy 0-0 FK Tobol Kostanay | Premier League |
| Sep 12, 2021 | FK Tobol Kostanay 2-1 Kaspiy | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: FK Tobol Kostanay vs Kaspiy on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Kaspiy score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; FK Tobol Kostanay score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaspiy | 1.4 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| FK Tobol Kostanay | 1.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kaspiy sit 11th in Premier League (23 points from 22 matches) and FK Tobol Kostanay sit 9th (25 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 23 | 28 | 25 |
| 11 | Kaspiy | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 24 | 31 | 23 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kaspiy vs FK Tobol Kostanay?
- The Footlab model makes Kaspiy the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for FK Tobol Kostanay.
- Where and when is Kaspiy vs FK Tobol Kostanay played?
- Kaspiy vs FK Tobol Kostanay is played on August 30, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Jas kanat, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.