Istiqlol vs Eskhata: prediction and stats
Vysshaya LigaRegular Season - 20Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Republican Central Stadium, Dushanbe
The Footlab AI model makes Istiqlol the favourite at 76%, against 16% for a draw and 8% for Eskhata. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,446 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Istiqlol vs Eskhata?
Istiqlol is a heavy favourite: 1,715 Elo points against 1,369, a 346-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Istiqlol vs Eskhata
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Istiqlol
5-4-1- 43P. Komolafe
- 8S. Haghnazari
- 11Muhammadjon Rahimov
- 17E. Panjshanbe
- 9R. Soirov
- 55M. Safarov
- 5S. Qurbonov
- 4M. Chobanov
- 95R. Turkaj
- 33Joseph Okoro
- 1N. Stosic
Eskhata
Not enough data to predict the Eskhata lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 03:04 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Istiqlol have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat; Eskhata have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | Khujand(away) | 0-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Khosilot Farkhor(home) | 1-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Parvoz(away) | 4-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ravshan(away) | 1-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Sardor Tursunzoda(away) | 1-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Sardor Tursunzoda(away) | 1-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Istaravshan(home) | 3-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | CSKA Pomir(away) | 0-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Ravshan(home) | 1-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Barki Tajik(home) | 2-2 | Vysshaya Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Istiqlol wins, 2 draws, 0 Eskhata wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Eskhata 0-0 Istiqlol | Vysshaya Liga |
| Nov 10, 2025 | Istiqlol 6-2 Eskhata | Vysshaya Liga |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Eskhata 1-1 Istiqlol | Vysshaya Liga |
| Nov 22, 2024 | Eskhata 0-3 Istiqlol | Vysshaya Liga |
| May 19, 2024 | Istiqlol 6-1 Eskhata | Vysshaya Liga |
| Dec 12, 2023 | Istiqlol 4-2 Eskhata | Vysshaya Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Istiqlol score 1.3 and concede 0.3 goals per match over their last 15; Eskhata score 1.3 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Istiqlol | 1.3 | 0.3 | 11 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
| Eskhata | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Istiqlol sit 2nd in Vysshaya Liga (37 points from 17 matches) and Eskhata sit 9th (19 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Istiqlol | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 6 | 37 |
| 9 | Eskhata | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 32 | 19 |
A question about Istiqlol vs Eskhata?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Istiqlol vs Eskhata?
- The Footlab AI model makes Istiqlol the favourite at 76%, against 16% for a draw and 8% for Eskhata.
- Where and when is Istiqlol vs Eskhata played?
- Istiqlol vs Eskhata is played on October 28, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Republican Central Stadium, in the Vysshaya Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.