Istiqlol vs Eskhata: prediction and stats
Vysshaya LigaRegular Season - 20Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Republican Central Stadium, Dushanbe
The Footlab model makes Istiqlol the favourite at 78%, against 14% for a draw and 8% for Eskhata. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Istiqlol vs Eskhata?
Istiqlol is a heavy favourite: 1,727 Elo points against 1,367 — a 360-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Istiqlol have 10 wins, 5 draws and 0 defeats; Eskhata have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ravshan(away) | 1-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Sardor Tursunzoda(away) | 1-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Istaravshan(away) | 2-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
| May 16, 2026 | Eskhata(away) | 0-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| May 9, 2026 | Barki Tajik(home) | 2-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Barki Tajik(home) | 2-2 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Khatlon(away) | 2-4 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Khujand(home) | 0-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Khosilot Farkhor(home) | 1-6 | Vysshaya Liga |
| May 22, 2026 | Parvoz(away) | 2-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Istiqlol win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Eskhata win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Eskhata 0-0 Istiqlol | Vysshaya Liga |
| Nov 10, 2025 | Istiqlol 6-2 Eskhata | Vysshaya Liga |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Eskhata 1-1 Istiqlol | Vysshaya Liga |
| Nov 22, 2024 | Eskhata 0-3 Istiqlol | Vysshaya Liga |
| May 19, 2024 | Istiqlol 6-1 Eskhata | Vysshaya Liga |
| Dec 12, 2023 | Istiqlol 4-2 Eskhata | Vysshaya Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Istiqlol score 1.5 and concede 0.4 goals per match over their last 15; Eskhata score 1.3 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Istiqlol | 1.5 | 0.4 | 9 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Eskhata | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Istiqlol sit 3rd in Vysshaya Liga (28 points from 13 matches) and Eskhata sit 9th (15 points from 14 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Istiqlol | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 4 | 28 |
| 9 | Eskhata | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 29 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Istiqlol vs Eskhata?
- The Footlab model makes Istiqlol the favourite at 78%, against 14% for a draw and 8% for Eskhata.
- Where and when is Istiqlol vs Eskhata played?
- Istiqlol vs Eskhata is played on October 28, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Republican Central Stadium, in the Vysshaya Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.