Istiqlol vs Wathba: prediction and stats
AFC Challenge LeagueGroup StageKick-off on October 23, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Republican Central Stadium, Dushanbe
The Footlab AI model makes Istiqlol the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Wathba. The most likely score is 1-1. If Istiqlol wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,603 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Istiqlol vs Wathba?
A very open match: only 66 Elo points separate Istiqlol (1,715) and Wathba (1,650).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Istiqlol vs Wathba
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Istiqlol
5-4-1- 43P. Komolafe
- 8S. Haghnazari
- 11Muhammadjon Rahimov
- 17E. Panjshanbe
- 9R. Soirov
- 55M. Safarov
- 5S. Qurbonov
- 4M. Chobanov
- 95R. Turkaj
- 33Joseph Okoro
- 1N. Stosic
Wathba
4-3-3- 7Mohammad Wael Al Rifaee
- 8Maher Daabol
- 11Abd Al Elah Al Hafyan
- 33Burhan Sahiwni
- 23Ibrahim Al Abdallah
- 10Subhi Shoufan
- 43Hadi Faisal Al Masri
- 3Jaber Khatab
- 17Azdasheer Al Sarem
- 88Saeed Bero
- 80William Ghannam
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 11:05 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Istiqlol have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Wathba have 12, 3 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Al Nejmeh(away) | 0-1 | AFC Challenge League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Khujand(away) | 0-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Khosilot Farkhor(home) | 1-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Parvoz(away) | 4-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ravshan(away) | 1-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Al Arabi(away) | 1-0 | AFC Challenge League |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Hottin(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Dordoi Bishkek(away) | 1-1 | AFC Challenge League |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Khan Shaykhun SC(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Jaish(away) | 3-0 | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Istiqlol score 1.3 and concede 0.3 goals per match over their last 15; Wathba score 1.8 and concede 0.4. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Istiqlol | 1.3 | 0.3 | 10 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
| Wathba | 1.8 | 0.4 | 9 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Istiqlol vs Wathba?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Istiqlol vs Wathba?
- The Footlab AI model makes Istiqlol the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Wathba.
- Where and when is Istiqlol vs Wathba played?
- Istiqlol vs Wathba is played on October 23, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Republican Central Stadium, in the AFC Challenge League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.