Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan: prediction and stats
EkstraklasaRegular Season - 22Kick-off on February 20, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski, Białystok
The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Jagiellonia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan?
A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate Jagiellonia (2,060) and Lech Poznan (2,141).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Jagiellonia have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats; Lech Poznan have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Saburtalo(home) | 4-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Rangers(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Widzew Łódź(home) | 0-2 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Rangers(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Motor Lublin(away) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Thun(home) | 7-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(away) | 5-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Piast Gliwice(home) | 3-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 6, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Wieczysta Kraków(away) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Jagiellonia win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Lech Poznan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Jagiellonia 0-0 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Lech Poznan 2-2 Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Jagiellonia 2-1 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Lech Poznan 5-0 Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Jagiellonia 1-2 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| Oct 24, 2023 | Lech Poznan 3-3 Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa |
Last archived meeting: Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan on Apr 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Jagiellonia score 1.7 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Lech Poznan score 2.6 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia | 1.7 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Lech Poznan | 2.6 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Jagiellonia sit 10th in Ekstraklasa (6 points from 3 matches) and Lech Poznan sit 4th (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan?
- The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Jagiellonia.
- Where and when is Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan played?
- Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan is played on February 20, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski, in the Ekstraklasa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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