Jinju Citizen vs Geoje Citizen: prediction and stats
K4 LeagueRegular Season - 23Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 07:00 AM (UTC)Jinju Stadium, Jinju
The Footlab model makes Jinju Citizen the favourite at 64%, against 20% for a draw and 16% for Geoje Citizen. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Jinju Citizen vs Geoje Citizen?
Jinju Citizen starts as the favourite with a 131-point Elo edge (1,744 vs 1,613).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Jinju Citizen have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Geoje Citizen have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gijang United(away) | 4-1 | K4 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Pohang Steelers(away) | 1-3 | FA Cup |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Busan Transportation(away) | 1-1 | FA Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Pyeongtaek Citizen(away) | 2-0 | K4 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Ansan Greeners(away) | 2-0 | FA Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | Jincheon(away) | 1-4 | K4 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Busan I Park(away) | 0-4 | FA Cup |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Pyeongchang United(away) | 3-1 | K4 League |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Incheon Seogot(home) | 4-0 | FA Cup |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Sejong SA(home) | 1-2 | K4 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Jinju Citizen win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Geoje Citizen win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Geoje Citizen 2-2 Jinju Citizen | K4 League |
Last archived meeting: Geoje Citizen vs Jinju Citizen on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Jinju Citizen score 2.3 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Geoje Citizen score 1.9 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jinju Citizen | 2.3 | 1.0 | 8 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Geoje Citizen | 1.9 | 1.8 | 3 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Jinju Citizen sit 1st in K4 League (46 points from 17 matches) and Geoje Citizen sit 8th (21 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jinju Citizen | 17 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 13 | 46 |
| 8 | Geoje Citizen | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 30 | 26 | 21 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Jinju Citizen vs Geoje Citizen?
- The Footlab model makes Jinju Citizen the favourite at 64%, against 20% for a draw and 16% for Geoje Citizen.
- Where and when is Jinju Citizen vs Geoje Citizen played?
- Jinju Citizen vs Geoje Citizen is played on October 3, 2026 at 07:00 AM (UTC) at Jinju Stadium, in the K4 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.