Kagoshima United vs Tochigi SC: prediction and stats
J3 LeagueRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Shiranami Stadium, Kagoshima
The Footlab model makes Kagoshima United the favourite at 52%, against 28% for a draw and 20% for Tochigi SC. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kagoshima United vs Tochigi SC?
A very open match: only 85 Elo points separate Kagoshima United (1,812) and Tochigi SC (1,727).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kagoshima United have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Tochigi SC have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Gifu(home) | 0-0 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Renofa Yamaguchi(home) | 2-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nara Club(away) | 3-1 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Thespakusatsu Gunma(home) | 1-0 | J3 League |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Blaublitz Akita(away) | 2-0 | J2/J3 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kitakyushu(home) | 2-2 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Urayasu(home) | 2-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Roasso Kumamoto(away) | 0-0 | J3 League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Kanazawa(home) | 3-2 | J3 League |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Kitakyushu(home) | 2-1 | J2/J3 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Kagoshima United win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Tochigi SC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | Tochigi SC 2-0 Kagoshima United | J3 League |
| Jul 5, 2025 | Kagoshima United 1-0 Tochigi SC | J3 League |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Tochigi SC 2-1 Kagoshima United | J2 League |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Kagoshima United 2-1 Tochigi SC | J2 League |
| Sep 22, 2019 | Tochigi SC 3-1 Kagoshima United | J2 League |
| Jun 22, 2019 | Kagoshima United 2-0 Tochigi SC | J2 League |
Last archived meeting: Tochigi SC vs Kagoshima United on Nov 9, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Kagoshima United score 1.5 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Tochigi SC score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kagoshima United | 1.5 | 0.8 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Tochigi SC | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kagoshima United sit 4th in J3 League (7 points from 3 matches) and Tochigi SC sit 8th (5 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Kagoshima United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Tochigi SC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kagoshima United vs Tochigi SC?
- The Footlab model makes Kagoshima United the favourite at 52%, against 28% for a draw and 20% for Tochigi SC.
- Where and when is Kagoshima United vs Tochigi SC played?
- Kagoshima United vs Tochigi SC is played on September 19, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Shiranami Stadium, in the J3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 19, 2026KanazawavsRenofa Yamaguchi
- Sep 19, 2026Roasso KumamotovsMatsumoto Yamaga
- Sep 19, 2026Ehime FCvsKamatamare Sanuki
- Sep 19, 2026Thespakusatsu GunmavsKochi United
- Sep 19, 2026Gainare TottorivsNara Club
- Sep 19, 2026Parceiro NaganovsFC Gifu
- Sep 19, 2026SagamiharavsKitakyushu
- Sep 19, 2026Biwako ShigavsFC Ryukyu