Where and when is Sagamihara vs Kitakyushu played?

Sagamihara vs Kitakyushu is played on September 19, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Sagamihara Gion Stadium, in the J3 League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Sagamihara vs Kitakyushu: prediction and stats

J3 LeagueRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Sagamihara Gion Stadium, Sagamihara

Sagamihara

Kitakyushu

The Footlab model makes Sagamihara the favourite at 61%, against 21% for a draw and 18% for Kitakyushu. The most likely score is 2-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Sagamihara vs Kitakyushu?

Sagamihara starts as the favourite with a 150-point Elo edge (1,768 vs 1,618).

Sagamihara win61 %

Draw21 %

Kitakyushu win18 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sagamihara have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Kitakyushu have 2, 4 and 9.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Sagamihara
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Kanazawa(home)	2-1	J3 League
Aug 15, 2026	Thespakusatsu Gunma(away)	4-1	J3 League
Aug 8, 2026	Roasso Kumamoto(home)	0-0	J3 League
Jun 6, 2026	Roasso Kumamoto(home)	3-0	J2/J3 League
May 30, 2026	Fujieda MYFC(home)	4-3	J2/J3 League

Kitakyushu
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Tochigi SC(away)	2-2	J3 League
Aug 19, 2026	Okinawa SV(home)	1-2	Emperor Cup
Aug 15, 2026	Kamatamare Sanuki(home)	0-0	J3 League
Jul 18, 2026	Yokohama FC(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jun 7, 2026	Tochigi SC(away)	1-2	J2/J3 League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Sagamihara win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Kitakyushu win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2025	Sagamihara 1-0 Kitakyushu	J3 League
Apr 20, 2025	Kitakyushu 1-1 Sagamihara	J3 League
Oct 6, 2024	Sagamihara 0-3 Kitakyushu	J3 League
Feb 24, 2024	Kitakyushu 0-1 Sagamihara	J3 League
Sep 30, 2023	Sagamihara 2-1 Kitakyushu	J3 League
Apr 29, 2023	Kitakyushu 1-1 Sagamihara	J3 League

Last archived meeting: Sagamihara vs Kitakyushu on Aug 23, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Sagamihara score 1.8 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Kitakyushu score 1.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Sagamihara	1.8	1.5	6	8/15	8/15
Kitakyushu	1.1	1.9	2	10/15	10/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Sagamihara sit 3rd in J3 League (7 points from 3 matches) and Kitakyushu sit 15th (2 points from 2 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
3	Sagamihara	3	2	1	0	6	2	7
15	Kitakyushu	2	0	2	0	2	2	2

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Sagamihara vs Kitakyushu?: The Footlab model makes Sagamihara the favourite at 61%, against 21% for a draw and 18% for Kitakyushu.
Where and when is Sagamihara vs Kitakyushu played?: Sagamihara vs Kitakyushu is played on September 19, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Sagamihara Gion Stadium, in the J3 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.