Where and when is Roasso Kumamoto vs Matsumoto Yamaga played?

Roasso Kumamoto vs Matsumoto Yamaga is played on September 19, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Egao Kenko Stadium, in the J3 League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Roasso Kumamoto vs Matsumoto Yamaga: prediction and stats

J3 LeagueRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Egao Kenko Stadium, Kumamoto

Roasso Kumamoto

Matsumoto Yamaga

The Footlab model makes Matsumoto Yamaga the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Roasso Kumamoto. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Roasso Kumamoto vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

A very open match: only 1 Elo points separate Roasso Kumamoto (1,700) and Matsumoto Yamaga (1,701).

Roasso Kumamoto win32 %

Draw30 %

Matsumoto Yamaga win38 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Roasso Kumamoto have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Matsumoto Yamaga have 4, 6 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Roasso Kumamoto
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Parceiro Nagano(home)	0-1	J3 League
Aug 19, 2026	Gainare Tottori(away)	2-2	Emperor Cup
Aug 15, 2026	Tochigi SC(home)	0-0	J3 League
Aug 8, 2026	Sagamihara(away)	0-0	J3 League
Jul 19, 2026	Yokohama F. Marinos(away)	1-3	Friendlies Clubs

Matsumoto Yamaga
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Ehime FC(home)	2-2	J3 League
Aug 16, 2026	Biwako Shiga(home)	2-3	J3 League
Aug 8, 2026	Kochi United(away)	0-0	J3 League
Jul 25, 2026	Ventforet Kofu(home)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jun 6, 2026	Nara Club(home)	0-2	J2/J3 League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Roasso Kumamoto win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Matsumoto Yamaga win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Sep 23, 2018	Matsumoto Yamaga 2-0 Roasso Kumamoto	J2 League
Jun 30, 2018	Roasso Kumamoto 1-3 Matsumoto Yamaga	J2 League
Jun 6, 2018	Matsumoto Yamaga 2-2 Roasso Kumamoto	Emperor Cup
Oct 7, 2017	Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 Roasso Kumamoto	J2 League
Apr 16, 2017	Roasso Kumamoto 2-0 Matsumoto Yamaga	J2 League
Nov 3, 2016	Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 Roasso Kumamoto	J2 League

Last archived meeting: Matsumoto Yamaga vs Roasso Kumamoto on Sep 23, 2018

How many goals should we expect?

Roasso Kumamoto score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Matsumoto Yamaga score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Roasso Kumamoto	0.9	1.1	6	5/15	5/15
Matsumoto Yamaga	1.5	1.2	4	8/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Roasso Kumamoto sit 17th in J3 League (2 points from 3 matches) and Matsumoto Yamaga sit 16th (2 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
16	Matsumoto Yamaga	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
17	Roasso Kumamoto	3	0	2	1	0	1	2

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Roasso Kumamoto vs Matsumoto Yamaga?: The Footlab model makes Matsumoto Yamaga the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Roasso Kumamoto.
Where and when is Roasso Kumamoto vs Matsumoto Yamaga played?: Roasso Kumamoto vs Matsumoto Yamaga is played on September 19, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Egao Kenko Stadium, in the J3 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.