Ordabasy vs FC Astana: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 26Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Qajimuqan Muñaytpasov, Shymkent
The Footlab model makes Ordabasy the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for FC Astana. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ordabasy vs FC Astana?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Ordabasy (1,742) and FC Astana (1,699).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ordabasy have 13 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats; FC Astana have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Altay(away) | 2-1 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Altay(home) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Zhetysu(away) | 4-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FK Tobol Kostanay(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Kairat Almaty(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kyzyl-Zhar(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Okzhetpes(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Ulytau(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Altay(home) | 4-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Dinamo Tirana(home) | 1-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Ordabasy win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 FC Astana win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | FC Astana 1-1 Ordabasy | Premier League |
| Jul 13, 2025 | Ordabasy 1-0 FC Astana | Premier League |
| Apr 5, 2025 | FC Astana 2-1 Ordabasy | Premier League |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Ordabasy 2-4 FC Astana | Premier League |
| Jun 16, 2024 | FC Astana 0-1 Ordabasy | Premier League |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Ordabasy 1-2 FC Astana | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: FC Astana vs Ordabasy on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ordabasy score 2.3 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; FC Astana score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ordabasy | 2.3 | 0.8 | 6 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| FC Astana | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ordabasy sit 1st in Premier League (52 points from 22 matches) and FC Astana sit 3rd (39 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 16 | 52 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ordabasy vs FC Astana?
- The Footlab model makes Ordabasy the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for FC Astana.
- Where and when is Ordabasy vs FC Astana played?
- Ordabasy vs FC Astana is played on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Qajimuqan Muñaytpasov, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.