Irtysh vs Okzhetpes: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 26Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Ortalıq Stadion, Pavlodar
The Footlab model makes Irtysh the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Okzhetpes. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Irtysh vs Okzhetpes?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Irtysh (1,481) and Okzhetpes (1,563).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Irtysh have 2 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats; Okzhetpes have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | FK Tobol Kostanay(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Yelimay Semey(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kaspiy(home) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Ulytau(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Zhenys(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atyrau(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Astana(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Altay(home) | 4-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Aktobe(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Zhetysu(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Irtysh win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Okzhetpes win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Okzhetpes 2-1 Irtysh | Premier League |
| Mar 15, 2024 | Irtysh 1-0 Okzhetpes | Cup |
| Sep 21, 2019 | Okzhetpes 1-0 Irtysh | Premier League |
| Jul 6, 2019 | Irtysh 2-1 Okzhetpes | Premier League |
| Apr 27, 2019 | Okzhetpes 1-0 Irtysh | Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2017 | Okzhetpes 1-2 Irtysh | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Irtysh score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Okzhetpes score 1.4 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irtysh | 0.9 | 1.5 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Okzhetpes | 1.4 | 1.4 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Irtysh sit 15th in Premier League (17 points from 21 matches) and Okzhetpes sit 4th (36 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Okzhetpes | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 32 | 29 | 36 |
| 15 | Irtysh | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 17 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Irtysh vs Okzhetpes?
- The Footlab model makes Irtysh the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Okzhetpes.
- Where and when is Irtysh vs Okzhetpes played?
- Irtysh vs Okzhetpes is played on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Ortalıq Stadion, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.