Kayanza United vs Le Messager Ngozi: prediction and stats
Ligue ARegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stade Municipal, Muyinga
The Footlab model makes Le Messager Ngozi the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Kayanza United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kayanza United vs Le Messager Ngozi?
A very open match: only 86 Elo points separate Kayanza United (1,442) and Le Messager Ngozi (1,528).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kayanza United have 4 wins, 8 draws and 3 defeats; Le Messager Ngozi have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Young Star(away) | 0-0 | Ligue A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Flambeau du Centre(home) | 0-0 | Ligue A |
| May 9, 2026 | Dynamik(home) | 3-1 | Ligue A |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Muzinga(away) | 0-0 | Ligue A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Flambeau du Centre(home) | 2-2 | Ligue A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Muzinga(home) | 2-1 | Ligue A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Bumamuru(away) | 1-0 | Ligue A |
| May 9, 2026 | Inter Star(home) | 3-0 | Ligue A |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Vital'O(away) | 2-1 | Ligue A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Royal Vision(home) | 0-1 | Ligue A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Kayanza United win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Le Messager Ngozi win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | Kayanza United 2-0 Le Messager Ngozi | Ligue A |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Le Messager Ngozi 2-3 Kayanza United | Ligue A |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Kayanza United 1-1 Le Messager Ngozi | Ligue A |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Le Messager Ngozi 1-0 Kayanza United | Ligue A |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Kayanza United 1-0 Le Messager Ngozi | Ligue A |
| Sep 23, 2023 | Le Messager Ngozi 1-0 Kayanza United | Ligue A |
Last archived meeting: Kayanza United vs Le Messager Ngozi on Feb 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Kayanza United score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Le Messager Ngozi score 1.3 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayanza United | 1.2 | 1.1 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Le Messager Ngozi | 1.3 | 0.8 | 5 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kayanza United sit 10th in Ligue A (2 points from 2 matches) and Le Messager Ngozi sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Le Messager Ngozi | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Kayanza United | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kayanza United vs Le Messager Ngozi?
- The Footlab model makes Le Messager Ngozi the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Kayanza United.
- Where and when is Kayanza United vs Le Messager Ngozi played?
- Kayanza United vs Le Messager Ngozi is played on November 22, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Municipal, in the Ligue A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.