Rukinzo vs Bumamuru: prediction and stats
Ligue ARegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 01:45 PM (UTC)Stade Intwari, Bujumbura
The Footlab model makes Rukinzo the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Bumamuru. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rukinzo vs Bumamuru?
A very open match: only 73 Elo points separate Rukinzo (1,618) and Bumamuru (1,545).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rukinzo have 7 wins, 7 draws and 1 defeats; Bumamuru have 2, 5 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Musongati(away) | 0-0 | Ligue A |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Panthere Noir(home) | 2-1 | Ligue A |
| May 9, 2026 | Flambeau du Centre(home) | 1-1 | Ligue A |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Bumamuru(away) | 4-0 | Ligue A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Ngozi City(home) | 4-2 | Ligue A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Panthere Noir(away) | 1-1 | Ligue A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Le Messager Ngozi(home) | 0-1 | Ligue A |
| May 9, 2026 | Musongati(away) | 0-3 | Ligue A |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Rukinzo(home) | 0-4 | Ligue A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Green Farmers FC(away) | 2-1 | Ligue A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Rukinzo win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Bumamuru win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Bumamuru 0-4 Rukinzo | Ligue A |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Rukinzo 0-1 Bumamuru | Ligue A |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Bumamuru 1-1 Rukinzo | Ligue A |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Rukinzo 0-2 Bumamuru | Ligue A |
| Feb 25, 2024 | Rukinzo 0-1 Bumamuru | Ligue A |
| Oct 8, 2023 | Bumamuru 2-0 Rukinzo | Ligue A |
How many goals should we expect?
Rukinzo score 1.7 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Bumamuru score 0.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rukinzo | 1.7 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Bumamuru | 0.9 | 1.6 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rukinzo sit 4th in Ligue A (4 points from 2 matches) and Bumamuru sit 14th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Rukinzo | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 14 | Bumamuru | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rukinzo vs Bumamuru?
- The Footlab model makes Rukinzo the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Bumamuru.
- Where and when is Rukinzo vs Bumamuru played?
- Rukinzo vs Bumamuru is played on November 21, 2026 at 01:45 PM (UTC) at Stade Intwari, in the Ligue A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.