Kerry vs Cork City: prediction and stats
First DivisionRegular Season - 36Kick-off on October 16, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Cork City the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Kerry. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kerry vs Cork City?
Cork City starts as the favourite with a 122-point Elo edge (1,551 vs 1,430).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kerry have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Cork City have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | UCD(home) | 1-1 | First Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sligo Rovers(away) | 0-4 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cork City(away) | 1-3 | First Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Cobh Ramblers(home) | 3-0 | First Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Bray Wanderers(away) | 4-0 | First Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Treaty United(away) | 2-2 | First Division |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Kerry(home) | 3-1 | First Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Athlone Town(home) | 3-2 | First Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Finn Harps(away) | 3-0 | First Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | UCD(away) | 2-5 | First Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Kerry win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Cork City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cork City 3-1 Kerry | First Division |
| May 4, 2026 | Kerry 1-0 Cork City | First Division |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Cork City 4-2 Kerry | First Division |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Cork City 4-1 Kerry | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 13, 2024 | Kerry 1-4 Cork City | First Division |
| Jul 26, 2024 | Cork City 2-0 Kerry | First Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Kerry score 1.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Cork City score 2.3 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry | 1.6 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Cork City | 2.3 | 1.6 | 8 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kerry sit 8th in First Division (22 points from 20 matches) and Cork City sit 1st (48 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cork City | 20 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 40 | 11 | 48 |
| 1 | Cork City | 28 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 59 | 25 | 64 |
| 6 | Kerry | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 35 | 34 | 36 |
| 8 | Kerry | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kerry vs Cork City?
- The Footlab model makes Cork City the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Kerry.
- Where and when is Kerry vs Cork City played?
- Kerry vs Cork City is played on October 16, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC), in the First Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.