Match

Kitakyushu vs Tochigi SC: prediction and stats

J3 LeagueRegular Season - 21Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Mikuni World Stadium, Kitakyushu

KitakyushuTochigi SC

The Footlab AI model makes Kitakyushu the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Tochigi SC. The most likely score is 1-1. If Kitakyushu wins, the most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,857 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Kitakyushu vs Tochigi SC?

A very open match: only 35 Elo points separate Kitakyushu (1,676) and Tochigi SC (1,711).

38%29%33%
Kitakyushu winDrawTochigi SC win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Kitakyushu vs Tochigi SC

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Kitakyushu

4-3-3
  1. 11Koh Seung-Jin
  2. 37K. Yoshida
  3. 52M. Nishimura
  1. 66D. Takahashi
  2. 18S. Hiramatsu
  3. 51Yutaro Sakashita
  1. 3R. Kamihashi
  2. 28K. Yokokubo
  3. 30K. Fukumori
  4. 20S. Yasumitsu
  1. 31K. Otani

Tochigi SC

4-3-3
  1. 10T. Igarashi
  2. 20W. Suzuki
  3. 77J. Nakamura
  1. 17K. Sugimori
  2. 7R. Osako
  3. 13K. Osone
  1. 14S. Suzuki
  2. 88K. Uchida
  3. 3R. Higashi
  4. 6K. Abe
  1. 41R. Tashiro

Computed on October 19, 2026 at 10:01 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kitakyushu have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Tochigi SC have 4, 4 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Kitakyushu
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 17, 2026Osaka(home)3-1J3 League
Oct 10, 2026Nara Club(away)0-2J3 League
Oct 3, 2026Kochi United(home)2-0J3 League
Sep 29, 2026Nagoya Grampus(home)1-3J-League Cup
Sep 26, 2026Kagoshima United(home)1-1J3 League
Tochigi SC
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 17, 2026FC Ryukyu(away)0-1J3 League
Oct 11, 2026Renofa Yamaguchi(home)0-1J3 League
Oct 4, 2026Kamatamare Sanuki(away)0-0J3 League
Sep 26, 2026Matsumoto Yamaga(home)1-2J3 League
Sep 19, 2026Kagoshima United(away)1-3J3 League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Kitakyushu wins, 2 draws, 2 Tochigi SC wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026Tochigi SC 2-2 KitakyushuJ3 League
Jun 7, 2026Tochigi SC 2-1 KitakyushuJ2/J3 League
Oct 5, 2025Tochigi SC 0-1 KitakyushuJ3 League
May 3, 2025Kitakyushu 0-0 Tochigi SCJ3 League
Nov 28, 2021Kitakyushu 1-2 Tochigi SCJ2 League
May 5, 2021Tochigi SC 1-2 KitakyushuJ2 League

Last archived meeting: Tochigi SC vs Kitakyushu on Aug 22, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Kitakyushu score 1.3 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Tochigi SC score 1.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Kitakyushu1.31.8310/159/15
Tochigi SC1.11.448/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Kitakyushu sit 14th in J3 League (13 points from 11 matches) and Tochigi SC sit 16th (10 points from 11 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
14Kitakyushu11344151913
16Tochigi SC11245111610

A question about Kitakyushu vs Tochigi SC?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Kitakyushu vs Tochigi SC?
The Footlab AI model makes Kitakyushu the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Tochigi SC.
Where and when is Kitakyushu vs Tochigi SC played?
Kitakyushu vs Tochigi SC is played on December 5, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Mikuni World Stadium, in the J3 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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