Where and when is Kitakyushu vs Tochigi SC played?

Kitakyushu vs Tochigi SC is played on December 5, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Mikuni World Stadium, in the J3 League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Kitakyushu vs Tochigi SC: prediction and stats

J3 LeagueRegular Season - 21Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Mikuni World Stadium, Kitakyushu

Kitakyushu

Tochigi SC

The Footlab model makes Tochigi SC the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Kitakyushu. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Kitakyushu vs Tochigi SC?

Tochigi SC starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (1,729 vs 1,620).

Kitakyushu win32 %

Draw27 %

Tochigi SC win41 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kitakyushu have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Tochigi SC have 3, 7 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Kitakyushu
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Tochigi SC(away)	2-2	J3 League
Aug 19, 2026	Okinawa SV(home)	1-2	Emperor Cup
Aug 15, 2026	Kamatamare Sanuki(home)	0-0	J3 League
Jul 18, 2026	Yokohama FC(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jun 7, 2026	Tochigi SC(away)	1-2	J2/J3 League

Tochigi SC
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 26, 2026	Kawasaki Frontale(away)	1-3	Emperor Cup
Aug 22, 2026	Kitakyushu(home)	2-2	J3 League
Aug 19, 2026	Urayasu(home)	2-0	Emperor Cup
Aug 15, 2026	Roasso Kumamoto(away)	0-0	J3 League
Aug 9, 2026	Kanazawa(home)	3-2	J3 League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Kitakyushu win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Tochigi SC win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Tochigi SC 2-2 Kitakyushu	J3 League
Jun 7, 2026	Tochigi SC 2-1 Kitakyushu	J2/J3 League
Oct 5, 2025	Tochigi SC 0-1 Kitakyushu	J3 League
May 3, 2025	Kitakyushu 0-0 Tochigi SC	J3 League
Nov 28, 2021	Kitakyushu 1-2 Tochigi SC	J2 League
May 5, 2021	Tochigi SC 1-2 Kitakyushu	J2 League

Last archived meeting: Tochigi SC vs Kitakyushu on Aug 22, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Kitakyushu score 1.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Tochigi SC score 1.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Kitakyushu	1.1	1.9	2	10/15	10/15
Tochigi SC	1.0	1.2	5	8/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Kitakyushu sit 15th in J3 League (2 points from 2 matches) and Tochigi SC sit 8th (5 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
8	Tochigi SC	3	1	2	0	5	4	5
15	Kitakyushu	2	0	2	0	2	2	2

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Kitakyushu vs Tochigi SC?: The Footlab model makes Tochigi SC the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Kitakyushu.
Where and when is Kitakyushu vs Tochigi SC played?: Kitakyushu vs Tochigi SC is played on December 5, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Mikuni World Stadium, in the J3 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.