Kitara vs Ntugasaze: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 7Kick-off on October 21, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)The Royals Park, Butema
The Footlab AI model makes Kitara the favourite at 79%, against 16% for a draw and 5% for Ntugasaze. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kitara vs Ntugasaze?
Kitara starts as the favourite with a 257-point Elo edge (1,537 vs 1,280).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Kitara vs Ntugasaze
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Kitara
Not enough data to predict the Kitara lineup.
Ntugasaze
Not enough data to predict the Ntugasaze lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 11:31 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kitara have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Ntugasaze have 1, 0 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Kataka(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Kigezi HomeBoyz(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Express(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Mogadishu City(home) | 2-0 | CAF Confederation Cup |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Mogadishu City(away) | 2-1 | CAF Confederation Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | KCCA(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Mbarara City(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Vipers(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | BUL(away) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Maroons(home) | 1-3 | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Kitara score 1.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Ntugasaze score 0.5 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitara | 1.2 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Ntugasaze | 0.5 | 2.2 | 1 | 2/6 | 3/6 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kitara sit 6th in Premier League (8 points from 4 matches) and Ntugasaze sit 16th (3 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Kitara | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 16 | Ntugasaze | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 3 |
A question about Kitara vs Ntugasaze?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kitara vs Ntugasaze?
- The Footlab AI model makes Kitara the favourite at 79%, against 16% for a draw and 5% for Ntugasaze.
- Where and when is Kitara vs Ntugasaze played?
- Kitara vs Ntugasaze is played on October 21, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at The Royals Park, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.