Kuressaare vs Saku Sporting: prediction and stats
CupRound of 16Kick-off on August 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Kuressaare linnastaadion, Kuressaare
The Footlab model makes Kuressaare the favourite at 73%, against 12% for a draw and 15% for Saku Sporting. The most likely score is 4-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kuressaare vs Saku Sporting?
Kuressaare starts as the favourite with a 253-point Elo edge (1,485 vs 1,231).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kuressaare have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Saku Sporting have 6, 0 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tammeka(away) | 0-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Flora Tallinn(away) | 3-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Kristiine JK(away) | 8-0 | Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Laagri(home) | 3-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Paide(away) | 0-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Olympic(away) | 7-0 | Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Legion(home) | 2-1 | Cup |
| Sep 3, 2025 | Tallinna FC Zapoos(away) | 0-3 | Cup |
| Jul 31, 2025 | Kompanii Marjamaa(home) | 3-2 | Cup |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Raplamaa(away) | 5-1 | Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Kuressaare score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Saku Sporting score 2.4 and concede 3.0. The model gives a 95% probability of over 2.5 goals and 87% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuressaare | 1.8 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Saku Sporting | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2 | 6/12 | 11/12 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kuressaare vs Saku Sporting?
- The Footlab model makes Kuressaare the favourite at 73%, against 12% for a draw and 15% for Saku Sporting.
- Where and when is Kuressaare vs Saku Sporting played?
- Kuressaare vs Saku Sporting is played on August 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Kuressaare linnastaadion, in the Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 95% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.