Trans Narva vs Kalju Nomme: prediction and stats
CupRound of 16Kick-off on August 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Kalevi Staadion, Narva
The Footlab model makes Kalju Nomme the favourite at 81%, against 11% for a draw and 9% for Trans Narva. The most likely score is 1-3.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Trans Narva vs Kalju Nomme?
Kalju Nomme starts as the favourite with a 254-point Elo edge (1,733 vs 1,479).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Trans Narva have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Kalju Nomme have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(away) | 0-4 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Paide(home) | 1-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Kompanii Marjamaa(home) | 8-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kalju Nomme(home) | 0-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Nõmme United(away) | 2-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Laagri(away) | 0-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vaprus(home) | 3-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Poseidon(away) | 12-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Trans Narva(away) | 2-0 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Tammeka(home) | 5-1 | Meistriliiga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Trans Narva win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Kalju Nomme win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Trans Narva 0-2 Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
| May 1, 2026 | Trans Narva 0-3 Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
| Apr 3, 2026 | Kalju Nomme 2-1 Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Trans Narva 0-0 Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Kalju Nomme 1-2 Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
| Jun 15, 2025 | Kalju Nomme 2-0 Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
Last archived meeting: Trans Narva vs Kalju Nomme on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Trans Narva score 1.8 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Kalju Nomme score 2.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 90% probability of over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trans Narva | 1.8 | 1.4 | 5 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
| Kalju Nomme | 2.4 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Trans Narva vs Kalju Nomme?
- The Footlab model makes Kalju Nomme the favourite at 81%, against 11% for a draw and 9% for Trans Narva.
- Where and when is Trans Narva vs Kalju Nomme played?
- Trans Narva vs Kalju Nomme is played on August 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Kalevi Staadion, in the Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 90% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.